Euro 2012: reflections after the first eight days

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It’s been a pretty great tournament so far. Lots of good games, a fair amount of goals, and all of the groups are still poised beautifully.

Group A
Russia has looked pretty good, Greece has been terrible (with some flashes of quality after they fall behind, Poland and the Czechs have showed flashes, but seem to clearly lag behind Russia. Greece is not technically out, but they’re probably going to get stomped by Russia. Which means it’s a win-or-go-home game for the Polish against the Czechs. I’d make them marginal favorites, but that could really go either way.  For Russia, Arshavin has been REALLY good, just like he was four years ago in this tournament. Apparently, he only truly shows up for the Euros. It seems like he’s put in more work in these two games than he did his entire Arsenal career.

Group B
Germany haven’t looked fantastic, but have certainly got the job done. They’re the only team with 6 points in the tournament, and seem quite likely to make it 9 in their final game against Denmark. They outclassed the Dutch, and did the necessary job against Portugal. While they haven’t really impressed like we might have hoped, they’re likely to win the ‘Group of Death’ at a canter. So you wouldn’t want to bet against them winning the whole thing. Denmark has been good, but probably not quite good enough. They really needed a point from Portugal. Portugal are clearly the best-placed to finish second in the group, but the Dutch aren’t out of it yet.  The Portugal-Netherlands match promises to be incredibly tense.

My pre-tournament prediction for Van Persie to win the Golden Boot is not looking good. He’s been incredibly wasteful. Still, he picked up one goal against Germany. And if the Dutch do get out of this, it will probably be because he turns in a performance like he’s been giving Arsenal. My other pre-tournament prediction was Ozil as the player of the tournament. That one is still looking plausible. He was magnificent in the first game and decent in the second.

Group C
Spain are still Spain. They can frustrate a bit, when all the passing seems to produce very little. Still, Italy was very good against them, and still only got a point. And they just dismantled Ireland, which was not that surprising but still was a pretty good performance. Italy and Croatia played a very intriguing game, one in which both sides seemed torn about whether to try for the win or settle for the draw. Italy are probably the slight favorites to advance. You’d bet on them to also beat Ireland, which would mean Croatia would need at least a draw from Spain. And even a draw might not be enough if Italy can beat Ireland by 3 goals. I’ve been impressed by all three of the non-Irish teams in this group. Croatia has looked very threatening and deft with the ball. Italy’s 3-5-2 formation has been solid and given them some fluidity. Spain are Spain.

Group D
France are in control, only needing a point from the eliminated Swedes to go through. In fact, there’s a very good chance this one will finish in exactly the order I predicted (France, England, Ukraine, Sweden). For England, it’s hard to see them advancing past the quarterfinals unless they can tighten up their defensive arrangement. But with four points, they only need a draw against Ukraine to guarantee going through. And they’ll have Rooney back. So it’s still possible.

Best games:

Poland 1 – 1 Greece
Potentially ruined by a terrible referee, who sent off a Greek player for two ‘fouls’ that shouldn’t have produced one yellow, much less two. It looked at that point like Poland was going to cruise to a victory, but instead Greece came roaring back. The keeper being sent off and his replacement immediately saving a penalty was a fantastic moment. Poland were a bit bipolar in this one, showing some serious quality in the first half and looking like a pub team who stumbled onto the field in the second half.

Spain 1 – 1 Italy
Wonderful skill on display in a very cagey match. Italy showed that Spain can be challenged effectively without simply parking the bus. And Spain showed that even against good competition playing well, they are still a serious force.  Probably the most skillful game of the tournament so far.

Denmark 2 – 3 Portugal
Some beautiful goals in this one. The Postiga goal was just lovely, the Bendtner efforts were nice.  Even (grrr) Pepe gave a good showing.  Denmark recovers from being down two goals, and then Portugal put them away in the final couple minutes. Riveting stuff.

England 3 – 2 Sweden
Not a particularly well-played game, but tremendously entertaining. England conceded two very silly goals, but scored a couple beauties. Walcott decided to turn up and be the good Walcott in the game against Sweden, rampaging through the Swedish defense, scoring goals and setting them up. Overall, it was just end-to-end madness.

Surprises:
– The revenge of the overpriced Premier League strikers. Torres had a couple classic Torres miscues in his first game, but has looked incredibly dangerous throughout, and added a couple goals against Ireland.  He’s looking much more like the Torres who was arguably the best striker in the world and much less like the guy who couldn’t score for 1000 straight minutes this year.  Meanwhile, Andy Carroll was a serious handful in his game, and notched a very solid goal. And in a serious blast from the past, Shevchenko got a brace in Ukraine’s opener.
– The Netherlands. They haven’t been terrible, but they really haven’t been good, either. They could still get out of the group and turn on the afterburners, but they have really dug a hole for themselves. I suppose Denmark counts as a surprise, too, as the reverse of this. But they did get outplayed and still probably won’t make it out of the group.
– My predictions. While I’ve gotten a fair number of the individual games wrong, it looks reasonably likely that every team I predicted to top the group will do so, and all the teams I predicted to finish last to do so. And it’s still not particularly unlikely for all four groups to finish precisely as I guessed. Considering how poor I often am at this stuff, that would be a real shock.
– GOALS! No 0-0 result so far, and it’s just been a pretty open tournament in general.
– Zlatan. Not a ‘surprise’ really, but he has been really good. He never quite became the world-class player that he was supposed to be, but he’s really not far off. Sweden are out, but it has nothing to do with him. He was just immense in both of their games.
– Ribery is an incredibly aggravating player. Oh wait, that’s not remotely a surprise. I freaking hate Ribery.

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