World cup day 14 – Argentina and France top weak groups

Nigeria 2 – 3 Argentina
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3 – 1 Iran

Messi was at it again, scoring two more goals and playing much better outside of the goals as well.  Argentina still have a lot of questions to answer—having conceded two very sloppy goals here.  But their attacking play certainly looked better this time around.  Though some of that was likely to do with the circumstances. Nigeria knew fairly early on that Iran was trailing, and that they were likely safe even if they lost.  Which gave the game a casualness that was quite fun.  Messi and Eneyeama in the Nigerian goal were particularly playful with each other

In the other game, Bosnia quite comfortably dispatched Iran, who looked a lot more ragged than in their first two efforts.  Part of that is just natural regression—it’s virtually impossible to consistently play as perfectly as a unit as they did against Argentina—and part of it is the fact that they needed to WIN the game to advance.  Especially once Bosnia went ahead, Iran were forced to push further up the field which made their shape a lot harder to hold.

I feel bad for Bosnia, who were quite good in their first and third games and had a goal unjustly disallowed in the second. If that goal had stood, they’d very likely be the ones advancing right now

Honduras 0 – 3 Switzerland
Ecuador 0 – 0 France

An anticlimactic end to a group that brought very few surprises.  France created a lot of chances but couldn’t score any of them.  They certainly weren’t terrible, so I wouldn’t read too much into this one.  Especially since they had already basically wrapped up first place, making this almost a completely meaningless game for them.  On the other side, Honduras put on a serious clinic in how to avoid scoring. Pretty much any way you can imagine, they did it.  Misguided headers, shots pulled just wide, shots barely over the bar, forcing saves, unmarked people in the box who couldn’t be picked out, hilariously obvious penalties not being called.  Switzerland were not at ALL impressive, scoreline be damned.  Though Shaqiri’s first goal was pretty tasty.

This all means that France and Argentina are going to have to really like their chances against Nigeria and Switzerland.

Predictions for tomorrow:

  • Portugal 2 – 2 Ghana
  • United States 0 – 1 Germany
  • South Korea 1 – 3 Belgium
  • Algeria 1 – 2 Russia

Well, here it is.  I still am convinced that Portugal is a pretty good team, and they will really need to go for it here.  Both teams, actually, are going to really want goals.  A draw helps neither of them, and a high scoring win is particularly helpful for both.  If Ghana wins by only one goal, then goals-scored might well become the next tiebreaker for them and the US.  And Portugal need to ratchet back a 5 goal margin in goal difference.  So 2-2 might even be underestimating things.

At this point, I just have no idea what to predict from the US games. A cagey 1-1 draw that would suit both teams seems quite possible (or even a 0-0 draw).  A 5-0 demolition by Germany seems possible. A 4-3 victory seems possible. Who the heck knows? But I’m predicting a 1-0 because (as I’ve said) my presumption is always that Germany will somehow find a way to win.  And I think they’ll both set out to play conservatively.

In the other group, I see an easy win for Belgium and a grueling, awful, soul-crushing win from Russia. Because that’s just how these things go.

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