Mitt’s big chance

Well, my ‘Tim Pawlenty is the best bet to win the Republican nomination’ prediction didn’t turn out so well did it? With that in mind, take the following statement with an enormous grain of salt:

I think Mitt Romney gets the nomination.

Here’s my reasoning: 1) Michele Bachmann is a certified lunatic. That she is being talked about as anything remotely like a serious candidate is just a sign of how miserable our democracy is right now. But even the loony fringe is not going to let Mrs. McCrazy actually try to run against Obama. 2) Rick Perry is experiencing his honeymoon phase, and is already stumbling quite a bit. He may appear to be the more ‘reasonable’ of the crazy candidates, but that is a thin veneer and I don’t think it will hold up. I’m also skeptical of his ability to run for president well, based in part on the fact that he waited so long to even get in the race. That strikes me as the act of someone who wants to win cheaply rather than someone who really understands what it takes. 3) everyone else in the race is a vanity candidate, at best. 4) the more the economy is terrible (and it doesn’t look like improving much in the next 14 months) the more the Republican establishment is going to see 2012 as a genuine opportunity to unseat Obama. Which means getting someone who isn’t going to self-destruct.

#4 is the big one. My premise that they wouldn’t accept Romney stemmed mostly from the belief that the crazy wing of the party was going to exert its dominance in the nominating process. But the more that Obama looks vulnerable the more that the (relatively) moderate side of the party is going to flex its muscles.