Bad News – Eels
Just in time for the holidays, Ethiopia has declared war on the Islamist militia largely in control of Somalia. A number of experts are warning that this could be the spark that causes the violence within the country to spread across the Greater Horn.
Somalia has been in relatively dire straits for a very long time, almost the definition of a “failed state.” There was faint optimism from some quarters recently as the Union of Islamic Courts established control over large swaths of the country, providing a modicum of stability and governmental services, and reigned in the clan system which had (until then) been the sole organizational system for most of the country. In the face of anarchy, many Somalis seemed eager to embrace Islam – even if it meant accepting a Taliban-style government – in the hopes of enabling some semblance of the rule of law.
Any stability provided appears to have been short-lived, as reports suggest that nearly a dozen countries in the region have been supplying arms to both sides of the internal conflict, using the country as a proxy battleground. The most significant of these is Ethiopia, the neighboring predominantly Christian nation which is the principal backer of the nominal government. Until now, they have avoided becoming directly involved, but in the last week, all pretense of has been dropped.
Eritrea, which has its own extremely antagonistic history with Ethiopia, is unlikely to respond positively to the incursion. Given the number of countries covertly involved and the general instability of the Horn, there is a very real risk of escalation beyond the borders of Somalia.
At this point, the best that can be hoped for is negotiations between Ethiopia and the Union of Islamic Courts to create a power-sharing arrangement between the Islamists and the internationally recognized transitional government.
The worst case scenario is conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which mobilizes a wide base of Muslim countries, escalation across the Horn, hundreds of thousands of refugees, and a public health crisis of enormous proportions.
This is a seriously scary situation, all the more because it is yet another example of the inability to resolve these problems with military force.
Speaking of…
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The uselessness of military means to resolve complicated disputes over power arrangements, religion, culture, and historical animosity has been clearly demonstrated over the last several years in Iraq.
That said, I’ve been frustrated in recent weeks by the debate over what to do about US forces. The problem is that two 100% sensible approaches (“the war was a stupid, terrible idea” and “we shouldn’t trust Bush and his cronies”) have united to create an assumption that the ONLY reasonable progressive take on the war is immediate withdrawal.
Don’t get me wrong, of the available options (none of them good), I’d support getting out sooner rather than later. But that doesn’t mean there is no reasonable argument to be made in defense of a more measured approached (the “timetable for withdrawal”). Simply put, things are going to get worse when we leave. It’s a civil war already but there is a serious question of degree. It could get a LOT worse.
As I said, this is strong proof that the war was a horrible, criminal idea from the get-go. But we can’t go back in time – we have to deal with the situation we find ourselves in now. And just because it was a bad idea to start doesn’t necessarily mean that immediate withdrawal is best. Maybe preventing an escalation and beginning drawdown will create a more stable situation over the next 12-18 months.
Probably not, but given the dangers involved, finding solutions ought to be more important than being right.
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Anti-Manifesto – Propagandhi
We strive for something more than a faded sticker on a skateboard…
As for the other incredibly troubling situation in the region, I don’t really have the time (or emotional reserves) to go into extensive and extraordinarily unpleasant detail about Darfur right now, so let’s cut right to the chase. The promise of “never again” was dealt a devastating blow in Rwanda – that we are letting it happen again is a sign of a moral breakdown nearing absolute.
We have to do something. But the thing is, the crisis is so large that it’s hard to even know where to begin.
One suggestion: you can donate (and add you name to a petition) at Save Darfur or just spend some time reading about the issue and communicating the need for action to friends, family, politicians, your local newspaper, whatever. It doesn’t seem like much, but it’s better than nothing. And every little bit counts.
Finally, let us learn from all three of these crises. While the situations differ in many ways, one important lesson to be drawn from all three is that finger-in-the-dike strategies to deal with violence after it has already begun are important, but are not the answer. We ought to do better at conflict resolution, but the real place to focus is preventing conflicts before they begin. And the easiest way to do that is to address in a serious and meaningful way the problem of global poverty.
While poverty doesn’t directly cause violence, war, and genocide, but it creates the conditions which make them possible. And you don’t have to be a radical free trader to believe that people are less willing to engage in warfare if they have a stake in peace.
Moreover, the number of deaths and ruined lives from the structural violence of malnutrition, dirty water, lack of basic public health services, and lack of education far exceeds the hundreds of thousands who have been killed in Darfur by a factor of a hundred.
Even that is probably a gross underestimate.
That is not meant to minimize the genocide, but rather to make it clear how serious a problem this really is.
It’s a depressing situation, but we’ve got a presidential election coming up soon – insist that this be addressed, not in terms of slogans, but in real commitments to tangible and serious action. We ostensibly live in a democracy. Let’s show the world what that means.
