(Here’s One for You) Underdog – Bedroom Eyes
Who said this tournament was boring? Day six was more full of action and excitement than anything yet as the two South American teams put on a real display of class, while the mighty Spain were toppled.
Honduras 0 – 1 Chile
Another perfect prediction for me, though to be honest I thought it was be quite a bit closer. Chile probably should have won by three or four. They absolutely battered Honduras–who almost never had the ball in a threatening position. I don’t even really think that Honduras set out to play all that negatively (at least not compared to some of the other teams so far), but Chile were just that good. When Honduras could get the ball, they would try to break, but this was rare and usually short-lived.
Alexis Sanchez was ridiculously good for Chile. He got a bit of hype beforehand, but his stock surely just went up quite a bit. Honduras simply had no answer to him. Fantastic speed, great vision, tons of skill on the ball. Very impressive.
I only saw the second half, but my impression is that it was pretty much the same the whole way through. The only thing keeping Honduras in the game was some great saves and some mediocre finishing. Oh, and apparently the ref was terrible (denying a penalty to Chile among other things), though for the portion that I saw he didn’t make any serious mistakes.
For more reading, I’d recommend the great tactical analysis from Zonal Marking. Helped me see a lot of things I would have otherwise missed.
Chile got a great result, but they’ll actually probably be pretty unhappy with the day overall, given what happened just a short while later…
Spain 0 – 1 Switzerland
Wow. A great result from Switzerland, and thoroughly deserved, too. Spain were the better team in most aspects, but they simply couldn’t find a way into dangerous spots in the box and Switzerland, despite having very few offensive moves, had almost as many dangerous chances. The difference for the game is that they got a bit of luck and managed to bundle one of their opportunities into the net.
Though maybe it’s not fair to ascribe things to luck. The first touch was actually pretty poor; it bounced off his shin which put it exactly the right distance in front of him. In addition, on the initial couple showings I thought that Casillas was just desperately hard done by–he did the right thing in coming out and blocked off the shot; it just took a tricky bounce, got caught up in the tumbling Swiss player and popped back out in a perfect space for a shot. But on replays it seems like Casillas actually didn’t get any of the ball and a penalty and sending off could have been justified.
In addition, the Swiss also had another great chance toward the end when Derdiyok put on a show of turning defenders this way and that, got himself a bit of space right in front of the goal and then hit it with the ‘wrong’ foot–leaving everyone wrong-footed. Just a few inches to the left and it would have been 2-0.
Some broader thoughts about this. To start, I’ll admit to having some mixed feelings. I really like the Spanish team, I love watching them play, and I’d love to see them do well. At the same time, you can’t help but root for an underdog and there’s no denying that it’s tremendously exciting to see this group cast into real doubt. I hope they win their next two and can get late into the tournament.
There was just a little bit of good news on that front, in that I was impressed by how calm Spain remained. I know some people will call this a problem, and complain that Spain ‘only has one way to play,’ but I think that’s totally wrong. Bringing on Torres and Navas changed things up and the switch in tactics generated a ton of new possibilities. But there’s a difference between mixing things up and completely abandoning your approach. Spain seemed willing, even as the urgency and pressure rose, to stick with the former and not start kicking mindless long balls or taking dumb pot-shots from 35 yards. In the long term, that’s a good sign. Against good teams you need to be able to stay calm under pressure and go with what you do best.
I say that Navas was a great addition, and he was because they really needed the width to stretch things out and a lot of their best attacks in the final third of the game came through him. However, while he was awesome at forcing the defense to re-organize, his crossing was lacking. Most of them were far too short. Better crossing from him might have really changed things up.
I know the tendency is going to be to overreact and declare the death of Spain, but let’s all agree to chill out a little bit. This only the second time Spain has lost in about three years. We can just wait a couple weeks and we’ll see precisely how they fare. I’m not willing to let one game change an impression informed by years of watching them dominate.
Final thought: Brazil can’t have been very excited about today’s results. Assuming they win their group (sure, that’s not certain but presumably they expect to make it happen), the chances of meeting Spain in the second round just went up quite a lot.
South Africa 0 – 3 Uruguay
A serious case of reversion to the mean. South Africa almost certainly were not as good as they looked against Mexico, and their performance this time around was far closer to what you’d expect from a team of their quality. Lots of misplaced passes, a lack of tactical awareness (leaving their sole striker stranded for most of the game) and terrible, terrible crossing. The free kicks and corners regularly sailed well over the danger zone. And they seemed baffled by what to do about Forlan.
Speaking of which, Forlan’s goal was both beautiful and just a tiny bit lucky. It took the slightest of hits off the head of a South African defender, which took a bit of the pace off it and gave it a different angle. It’s hard to say whether it would have found the net without the deflection, but given what we’ve seen of distance strikes so far in the tournament, there’s every chance it would have continued skyward. The closest defender also ducked out of the way rather than jumping up to try and block it.
Continuing on the subject, I’d just like to point out that Forlan is a great, great player. He holds the ball well, he makes fantastic runs, he poses endless distractions to the defense, and he is inch-perfect on his through balls. None of this is news of course. He’s a two time Golden Boot winner in Europe and just recently scored the two winning goals to help Atletico Madrid beat Fulham in the Europa League final. But it’s worth repeating because his performance today was just about the best we’ve seen so far from anyone in the tournament.
The red card on the keeper was a bit harsh, for two reasons. One, Suarez really sold it and had been overreacting/diving all game. There was contact but it was pretty minimal. Two, the ball was already headed back away from goal at the point where the contact happened so you could argue that it wasn’t really a goal-scoring opportunity. Still, there was contact and the degree of it doesn’t matter too much if it is a foul.
That’s pretty much it for South Africa’s chances. It’s a shame, but they haven’t been embarrassed and even if they lose to France, their performance in the opening game was strong.
Predictions for tomorrow:
- Argentina 1 – 0 South Korea
- Greece 0 – 1 Nigeria
- France 3 – 2 Mexico
Argentina catch a lucky break with Veron picking up a leg injury that rules him out of the next game. This means they’ll be forced to play someone who can run faster than me, and who won’t waste endless opportunities by passing to the opposition or to the 35th row. My predictions here were all set in stone before the tournament BTW. Unless something serious happens I’m going to stick with what I guessed a week ago. Still, I claim close to changing the last one based on the ridiculously low goal-scoring so far. But whatever, I’m going to stick with it and hope that these two talented teams with defensive frailties liven things up for us.