It’s become a bit of a tradition to turn this blog into soccer-central when the major international tournaments roll around. And while I’m a bit more busy this year, I’ll be attempting to post semi-regularly about Euro 2012. And my friend Jan (who is German, but we’ll forgive him for that) will hopefully be posting a bit here as well.
First things first: rooting interests. Unlike the last few big events, I don’t have any strong commitments here. My mom’s side of my family is Turkish, so they’re my second team and I was extremely excited four years ago when they pulled off some miracle-results. But they didn’t qualify this time. Unfortunately, Greece DID make it, so I’ll be rooting against them as a bit of a proxy for my Turkish nationalism.
I’m a bit of an Anglo-phile, and I really like Roy Hodgson, so I suppose I’m pulling for England. On the other hand, I loath John Terry (as sort of a stand-in for all the irritating things about English football) and after Chelsea somehow stumbled into the European Cup this year, I really couldn’t stand to see more good things happen to him and his ilk. I’ll root for them to make the quarterfinals and lose to Spain.
Speaking of which, I love watching Spain and was pretty firmly behind them in 2010. And it would be cool to see a team finally win three major tournaments in a row. But the ‘wow’ factor is fading with them. If they put together some amazing performances, I will be happy. But if they get kicked around and stifled, I won’t cry too much either.
I really like Ireland. One of my favorite players in the world is Kevin Doyle (from his Reading days), and I think they’re a fun, scrappy team. I really can’t see them advancing out of their tough group, but I will certainly be rooting for it. Same goes for Denmark, who is really good but probably not good enough to get past two out of Portugal, Germany, and the Netherlands.
It sort of pains me to say it, but I really like this German team. They were a real joy to watch two years ago and are just stacked with great attacking talent. They’re my pick to win the whole thing, and I can’t say that would be a bad result aesthetically.
That out of the way, here are my predictions.
Group A
1. Russia
2. Poland
3. Czech Republic
4. Greece
Group B
1. Germany
2. Netherlands
3. Portugal
4. Denmark
Group C
1. Spain
2. Italy
3. Croatia
4. Ireland
Group D
1. France
2. England
3. Ukraine
4. Sweden
Pretty boring, really. I expect those are the most common picks to advance from each of the groups.
If you are looking for upsets, the teams who I’m not confident enough to actually pick, but who have a good chance include: Portugal (if C. Ronaldo can actually play like C. Ronaldo), Ireland (if they can hold off the tide), and Ukraine (who I think is clearly worse than England on paper, but will be playing at home…and they have the advantage of not being England). As I said, I really think Denmark is a solid team, but that’s an unbelievably tough group. Finally, Group A seems quite weak across the board, so I could see that one finishing in any order.
I expect whoever qualifies out of Group B to both win their quarterfinal matches, and think the Spain and France will win on the other side. Germany beats the Dutch in one semifinal while France pulls off a bit of an upset against Spain in the other. And Germany wins convincingly in the final.
Golden boot: Robin Van Persie.
Player of the tournament: Mesut Ozil