So it looks like Obama is going to pick Judd Gregg (R-NH) to fill the Commerce Secretary position. Part of the arrangement is that Democratic Governor John Lynch will select a Republican to fill that seat. I’ve got a few thoughts.
– I don’t love the pick. And if he was going to pick a Republican, it might have been nice to gain a Senate seat.
– That said, it’s hard to get too worked up about it. Commerce just isn’t that important, for one. And while it isn’t going to be a Republican in the seat, it’ll almost certainly be someone more moderate than Gregg.
– Speaking of which, Gregg wasn’t actually particularly moderate. He’s not John Kyl or anything, but he’s also not Olympia Snowe. Some has suggested that with a tough election coming up he might have tilted further left. That’s probably true, but I think it misses one important point…
– Gregg probably would have won in 2010. He’s pretty popular. If it were 2006 or 2008 the wave probably would have taken him with it, but while 2010 might be alright for the Blue Team it’s just not going to compare to the past two cycles. I like Paul Hodes a lot (my Congressional rep up until September), but I’m not sure he was quite ready to take on Gregg. However, if it’s a caretaker appointment, I think Hodes’ chances (or whoever else runs) go up a lot.
– But isn’t it still annoying to miss out on 60 votes? Well, yes and no. I’ve always thought that the 60 votes thing was a bit of a red herring. First, party-line votes simply aren’t that common. It happens a bit more often in the House (especially with the gerrymandering of districts producing a TON more “safe” seats that drive many House members toward the extreme edges), but trying to keep an entire Senate caucus in line is like herding cats. Because of that, I agree with those (like Nate Silver) who suggest that getting to 60 could actually be damaging in the long run – because the symbolic power of 60 far outstrips its kinetic power. That’s not to say I would prefer to have 59, but I also don’t think that getting to 60 unlocks some magical door to the land of Universal Health Care and Solar-Powered Socialism.
– Finally, I strongly disagree that it’s “pretty clear that this whole charade is really about a single vote.” That’s not to say that the upcoming stimulus-ocide wasn’t one factor in the decision – it may very well have been – but as I’ve said many times before I think people continually underestimate the degree to which Obama values the process of political engagement for its own sake.