World Cup day eleven – take a chance on me

A day of chances taken and opportunities squandered.  Portugal showed the sort of attacking flair and dominance that was supposed to be impossible.  Chile impressed and dazzled – and yet ended the day finding themselves in serious danger of elimination despite acquiring 6 points from the first two games.  And Spain…they showed why people were tipping them as favorites, but only in patches.

Portugal 7 – 0 North Korea

Well, we’ve finally figured out where all the goals were hiding.  Both for the World Cup and for the Portugese.  7-0 is a blowout of epic proportions, and Portugal had plenty of other opportunities.  The amazing thing is that most of the goals they got were quite pretty.  The one exception is Cristiano Ronaldo’s which is probably the silliest goal he’s ever scored.  He appeared to not even know where the ball was until it dropped to his feet with him about 5 feet in front of an open goal.  That said, it’s worth pointing out that he was superb in this game.  He had several near-misses that would have been absolutely brilliant.  But more importantly, he was really shining as a playmaker, putting together all kinds of wonderful attacking moves.  If he can sustain that kind of vision and quality, Portugal can beat anyone.

North Korea, for all their heroics against Brazil, were revealed as the comparatively weak team that we all expected them to be.  In part, unfortunately, this had a lot to do with them attempting to attack more.  When they remained compact against Brazil (with a solid back five and their wing backs making only occasional quick forays up the field) they were almost impossible to break down.  Their work rate let them frustrate and contain.  In this game, they had fewer bodies back and also seemed to be playing a higher line.  The combination meant that all the work rate in the world was not going to be sufficient to overcome the incisive and crisp passing of Portugal.

Not to be too macabre, but I really hope nothing bad happens to the North Korean players based on this.

Chile 1 – 0 Switzerland

Another dominant performance from Chile, ruined by rubbish finishing. In a group where goal difference is likely to be huge, they may really come to regret the inability to translate countless opportunities into concrete goals.  Once again, they showed why their 3-3-1-3 style is so intriguing, so it would be really fun to watch them make it to the next round.  Unfortunately, they’ve given themselves a tough path.  Despite beating Switzerland, they’re probably going to have to get a result against Spain to make it out.  And to be honest that seems pretty unlikely.  If Spain has trouble with defensively minded teams they can’t break down, they’re beautiful passing is going to wreck havoc on a Chile team that relies on controlling the tempo and the ball.

As has happened in a few other games, a red card really changed things up.  Before that, the game was relatively even, with Chile having the better of it to some extent, but with both teams looking like possible winners.  Afterward, Chile was dominant, but the Swiss put in a very nice performance given the circumstances.  The only goal they conceded was marginally (okay, very marginally) offside, and they even had a last minute chance to equalize when they missed a glorious and simple opportunity right in front of the goal.

As for the red card…it was a bit harsh.  But given the card-happy ref, it wasn’t a very smart move.  Still, I want to move on from the specifics to a larger thought:

I normally think people complain too much about diving and such things.  Yes, it’s a problem and it’s frustrating when players aren’t touched and fall over.  But in a lot of circumstances where people are accused of diving that’s not really what happens.  They’re moving at intense speeds and even small disruptions can be enough to make you lose your balance.  Now, when that happens, they might well decide to lose some speed and try to recover.  Or, they can theatrically fall.  Given that the former option likely involves losing the advantage on the attack, it’s not unreasonable to choose the latter.  The problem, of course, is that refs generally don’t call falls if people don’t fall over.  That doesn’t mean the clip isn’t a foul–it just means that it doesn’t get called.

That said, the behavior of some of the players in the last couple days has been disgraceful.  Kaka got sent off yesterday for absolutely nothing, based on Keita running into him and then holding his face, which had not been touched.  It was embarrassing, and it’s even more embarrassing that there is no review process.  Now, I strongly support getting some kind of video evidence into the game, but even if you’re against that, I simply cannot understand the argument against using video evidence after the fact to go back and review things.  There is absolutely no reason for Kaka to miss a game.  And Keita should get a 3 match ban for that kind of behavior. There was more (slightly less absurd) play-acting in the Switzerland-Chile game, too.

This is even more of a problem in the World Cup, when millions of people who don’t normally watch the sport are tuned in.  If one of the biggest cliches that undermines support for the beautiful game is the specter of diving, it’s a major shame to see this kind of thing.

There’s exaggeration designed to win a penalty or a free kick, where you “draw” a foul or are looking for the slightest bit of contact to send you sprawling.  That’s lamentable but it seems silly to worry obsessively about it.  But that’s totally distinct from pretending to have been attacked.  I can be tolerant of the latter while having zero sympathy for the former.

Spain 2 – 0 Honduras

Another perfect prediction from me.  It really should have been closer to the Portugal scoreline, but Spain had enormous trouble finishing.  In some ways, it wasn’t much different from their first game.  Except that Honduras was far worse at defending and so let in two goals. A lot of people are going to say that Spain ‘rediscovered their touch’ or some such thing after this game.  I don’t see it.  By which I mean: I never thought that the first game was a major concern (except that it gave them no more margin for error or chance), and this game suggests that if they play as well as they normally do, they’ll beat most teams.  That was true going in, was true during the first game, and is true now.

In terms of specifics, I don’t have much.  The first goal was absolutely brilliant from Villa.  He could have had a hat trick if he hadn’t scuffed his penalty.  Given the number of people who bet on him to win the golden boot, I bet there was some anger in the gambling world about that one.  Torres still looks a bit lost.  He’s playing at about 75% of his peak level, which is still good.  But Spain is really going to need him to rediscover the magic he’s got when he’s completely on if they want to win the whole thing.  He is their ‘different look’ – the sort of player who can win headers, who can generate something out of nothing, and who can burn teams that make the tiniest mistakes.

Fabregas looked antsy when he came on.  I really think they need to get him some more minutes in the 3rd game.  He needs to settle down and stop trying to make every second he’s on the pitch an opportunity for World Cup Glory.

Looking forward, Spain is simply in a win-or-go-home situation.  Their goal difference is only 1 behind Chile, so if they beat them, they will jump ahead.  Simple as that.  Switzerland need to hope for that result and win their game against Honduras.  If they can do that, they will be through (unless both games finish 1-0 in which case I think it would go to drawing lots!).

Going in I thought Honduras could get some points, maybe a win, out of this group.  Based on the evidence so far it seems pretty unlikely. They look bad.

Predictions for tomorrow:

  • Mexico 2 – 2 Uruguay
  • France 3 – 1 South Africa
  • Nigeria 2 – 2 South Korea
  • Greece 0 – 2 Argentina

Those results would make Uruguay first and Mexico second in Group A, and would Argentina first and South Korea second in Group B.

I reserve the right to change my mind when we find out whether France is even going to be able to field enough players willing to suit up, or if their implosion is going to reach epic proportions.  My theory for calling a win is that the pressure will be off, the catharsis will have been achieved, and the talent will shine through…now that it’s too late for it to matter.  But I could just as easily see them getting thumped 4-0 or something, or intentionally scoring own goals just to piss off Domenech.  At this point, who knows what kind of crazy things could happen.

I originally had the Argentina game as a 0-0 draw, but after watching Greece in action, I don’t see them posing much of a threat going forward and I also don’t think their defense is as good as I assumed it was.

The real game to watch there is S0uth Korea and Nigeria.  If Nigeria can scrape a win they still might go through, which I would like to see.

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