Mark Halperin gives odds on the GOP nomination.
Romney is his prohibitive favorite at 3-1, with Huckabee at 9-1, Daniels at 10-1, Pawlenty at 18-1, Huntsman at 20-1, Gingrich at 40-1, Palin at 60-1, and Crazy Michelle Bachmann at 1000-1.
A couple comments.
First, those numbers add up to a 69.2% chance of someone getting nominated. I’m curious who Halperin thinks makes up the rest of the 30%. I’m guessing he just didn’t bother to add up the numbers, which is pretty irritating. If you assume he thinks those are the real candidates and ramp it up to 100% odds Romney comes in at basically 2-1 to win the nomination. Which is pretty bold.
Second, that’s a preposterously low number for Pawlenty, who I still think is the favorite to get the nomination. Romney has some really serious problems, and most of the rest of those people are not real candidates (either because they won’t run or because they are vanity runs – like Gingrich).
Pawlenty has fairly limited baggage, and for whatever reason people seem to be willing to write off his flip-flops as genuine changes of heart rather than evidence of cravenness. He’s a reasonably good looking white guy of medium age. He was a governor of a blue (but not too blue) state.
In a year when almost everyone else has gaping wounds, what’s the reason for him NOT to win?