Heartache With Hard Work

Kiss Me Like You Mean It – Magnetic Fields

Today featured the first truly last-second goal (exciting), the most anticipated group-stage game between the two teams competing for escape from the ‘group of death’ (bleak and depressing), the almost-unknown North Korea (surprisingly fun to watch despite their defensive attitude), and the biggest power in global football.

New Zealand 1 – 1 Paraguay

I only watched the second half of this one, and more out of the corner of my eye than anything else.  It certainly looked like Slovakia was going to eke out a slender victory.  Their goal was offside, but they probably deserved a lead. New Zealand played reasonably well, but never really looked like equalizing.  And then, well into extra time, a cross comes in and is thumped into the back of the net!  Very exciting, even if it does make my prediction for a Slovakia win, and second-place finish in the group, pretty unlikely.  Italy and Paraguay have to have loved that result.  You’d have to favor those two for qualification now.

Ivory Coast 0 – 0 Portugal

A drab affair.  Both teams seemed to have set out to play for a 0-0 and they got what they were looking for.  The quality of play was fairly high, but that didn’t translate into anything exciting.  On both sides, it seems like they were counting on a moment of brilliance to create a goal and were not willing to commit the reserves necessary to pose a real threat.

Other assorted tidbits.  Yes, Ronaldo takes a dive now and then, but he also was getting hacked to pieces.  You can understand why he simulates even if you don’t want to approve of it.  The only real threat on goal the entire game came from that magical Ronaldo strike.  It had some crazy swerve on it, and the keeper seemed to have no clue.  He was only saved by the post.  It’s a major shame it didn’t go in, both because it would have been a stupendous goal, and also because it would have changed the outlook of the rest of the game.  Deco is done.  He looks like a pale shadow of the player he once was.  Drogba looked like the injury won’t be a major problem.  That’s definitely encouraging for their chances.

The big game for Ivory Coast is the next one.  If they can get a point from Brazil, they’ll likely qualify.  If they can’t, then Brazil will go into the final day assured of qualification and in a situation where a draw with Portugal could put them both through.

Brazil 2 – 1 North Korea

The best game of the tournament so far.  It had a number of exciting themes.  How long can North Korea hold onto the scoreless draw? Was it possible that they could actually take a lead?  How would Brazil respond as they got further and further into the match without scoring?  And then, once they did score, would the dam burst, with them putting in three or four in rapid succession?  And at the very end, North Korea contrived a goal and for the final couple minutes they were pushing forward to challenge for a draw and Brazil looked at least a bit concerned.

North Korea’s 5-3-2 was fun to watch.  Sure, it’s extremely defensive, but it’s defensive in an interesting way.  It relies on them running like crazy to double and triple up on whoever has the ball.  And it leaves the fullbacks totally unmarked which means things are constantly moving.  I’m curious to see if they can sustain this level of performance in the other games.  I still think they probably get zero points, but I wouldn’t be shocked if they got draws or even a victory in one of those games.

Okay, so the Maicon goal.  Let me first say: wow.  That’s the goal of the tournament so far for me.  The physics of it were just preposterous.  The amount of slice he put on the ball, the tight angle, the way it absolutely flummoxed everyone–including me watching at home.  As for the controversies, yes he meant it as a shot on goal, and while it was certainly a goalkeeping ‘error’ in some sense, it was a pretty understandable one.  The idea that someone would try a shot (and succeed) from that position was extremely unlikely, so it makes sense that the keeper was cheating forward to try and block off a cross.  This is especially likely when you realize that he would have had almost no chance to stop a header from that close.  So yes, in retrospect, he shouldn’t have cheated forward, but that’s what makes Maicon’s effort so amazing–that he recognized the slight opportunity and jumped on it.

Brazil’s other goal was pretty awesome, too.  Vintage Brazil.  A beautifully weighted pass from Robinho (man of the match in my book) and a clinical finish.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Honduras 0 – 1 Chile
• Spain 3 – 0 Switzerland
• South Africa 1 – 1 Uruguay

I wish the first game was on later.  I’d like to watch it since I like both those teams, but the 4:30 thing is really killing me.  I think Switzerland are good, but I think Spain is just that much better.  I’m all about predicting draws for South Africa.

UPDATE: Forgot to mention, my prediction of Kaka for the Golden Ball is not looking so good.  He was pretty terrible today.

Very short post today because I’ve spent the whole day packing up the last of my worldly possessions and moving them into storage for the summer.  Which a) means I’m exhausted and b) means I’m sad.  Moving is always a pain, but particularly so when you’re leaving a place that’s this wonderful.  Oh well, new wonderful homes await, and new memories are going to be made.

Netherlands 2 –  0 Denmark

Van Persie looked nowhere near as good as I expected.  I know he was hurt for a long time but he looked brilliant in the final couple games for Arsenal and the preliminary matches.  The Dutch aren’t going to go far if he doesn’t perform up to his ability.

They also really need Robben back.  I thought they’d be fine without him but the lack of width and creativity coming from the wings was a major problem for them today.  I literally had never even heard of this Elia fellow until he came on, but he showed some really great flashes and completely changed the game by filling a bit of the role of a genuine attacker on the flanks.

The first goal was a mess, obviously.  And the second one wasn’t much better from Denmark’s perspective.  They defended quite well today except for those two mistakes.  The second one is the one I want to focus on.  It wasn’t pretty (particularly the defender who just watched Kuyt run past to stick it in the net), but serves as a pretty good example of the three key characteristics needed for Dutch success.  It was all orchestrated by a brilliant ball from Sneijder, facilitated by Elia’s pace and movement, but would have just been an unfortunate miss without the workmanlike effort from Kuyt to actually finish it off and clean things up. If they can routinely bring all three of those components they’ll be a serious contender.

Japan 1 – 0 Cameroon

I went back to sleep during this match.  It sounds like it was horrible though–rivaling the Slovenia-Algeria game for worst of the tournament.  Good win for Japan there.  I didn’t expect much from them (predicted them to get zero points actually) but they’re in good shape to take 2nd in the group now.

Italy 1 – 1 Paraguay

My second spot-on prediction of the Cup, and a thoroughly predictable result.  Italy were the better team, I suppose, but only really based on the final 20 minutes or so. Before that, Italy was controlling the game but not really generating anything useful.  And the Paraguay goal (unlike some others in the t0urnament) was not a fluke or a goalkeeping mistake.  It was just an absolutely brilliant cross and a nice header.

Italy will be upset for not getting all three points, but they didn’t really show anything to suggest they’ll be moving past the second round.  They’d certainly be better with Pirlo, but I think that’s only part of the problem.  They’re just a bit old, slow, and don’t have the precision that they did four years ago.  No shame in that.  And while they didn’t look great today, the old cliche is that they pick up the pace as things go on.  And I do think that their ability to shut a game down may serve them well once they face a flair team.  We’ll see…

My predictions for tomorrow:

• New Zealand 0 – 2 Slovakia
• Ivory Coast 1 – 2 Portugal
• Brazil 4 – 0 North Korea

If Slovakia want to advance they absolutely MUST get three points.  The second game is perhaps the single biggest one of the entire group stages.  It pits the two teams presumably fighting for second place in the group of death.  I haven’t been following the news on Drogba (he’s trying to play with a cast, I think?), but even if he does play I can’t imagine he’ll be that useful.  And while Portugal have been pretty miserable, I think their ridiculous strength in the midfield is going to save them.  Plus, I’m counting on Ronaldo to be the first to score from a free kick in the tournament.

I would actually love to see a competitive game in the final match.  We don’t really know anything about North Korea.  But I can’t imagine they’re going to be able to hang with Brazil.

Lost In Your Failures – Super Deluxe

Going to be slightly quicker today because I am exhausted after getting up ridiculously early to watch the opening game.

Algeria 0 – 1 Slovenia

Dreadful.  An embarrassment to the beautiful game.

The idea that I woke myself up at 4:30 in the morning to watch this–to scope out the US opposition–is really depressing.  About 15 minutes in, my thought was that it resembled an MLS game, and not a very good one.  After an hour, I decided that that was really unfair…to MLS.  The standard of play in display in this match was nowhere near that quality.  The game basically went like this:

Algeria overhits hits a speculative ball, which then goes over the touchline.  Slovenia thumps a goal kick to midfield, where they make two or three passes and then give it away under no pressure at all.  Algeria passes it pointlessly around the back for a while, and then thumps a 50 yard speculative pass way beyond the striker making a run.  Rinse and repeat.

I’m not sure either team successfully strung together more than 6 or 7 passes the whole game.  That’s how terrible it was.

Events that summed up the game: 1) a mediocre pass to an Algerian on the far right wing, in territory that poses no real threat, is whistled for being offside. 2) late in the game. Slovenia has a decent counter opportunity, when Koren with loads of time and several teammates to pick out, taps the ball forward directly to the feet of the Algerian defender.  Counter-attack ended.  3) Ghezzal comes on as a substitute, immediately gets a yellow card for pulling a shirt right in front of the ref in a completely irrelevant part of the field, and then within 10 minutes gets a second yellow for deliberately handling the ball–on a play where he FAILS to actually control the ball despite using his hand.  Either one of them was an incredibly stupid card to pick up.  To get both of them as a sub within 10 minutes of coming on…just wow.  4) The goal.  If not for Rob Green, this would be a challenger for goalkeeping error of the tournament.  A tamely hit shot that bounces in front of him, he puts his hands down far below it and stupidly watches it bounce off his shoulder and into the net.

If England or the US compound the grave crimes of Egypt and Russia by allowing either of these teams to advance, it will be a travesty. It is ridiculous that a team can play as poorly as Slovenia did and still be topping the group.  God help us if we can’t beat them.

Serbia 0 – 1 Ghana

Serbia once again this year look like they’re flattering to deceive.  They were okay today, but nothing special.  Their biggest problem was an almost maniacal devotion to playing stupid pointless long balls up to their 6’8 striker. This team would be truly great if they had a world class creative midfielder.  I’m not saying they need Xavi or something.  Frankly, they could be significantly improved with even someone as mediocre as Michael Carrick.  Or, say, Luka Modric.  Which invites an interesting question: if Yugoslavia still existed, how good would they be?  Imagine the defending talent of Serbia combined with the attacking power of Croatia and Bosnia.  Add Modric or Eduardo or Dzeko or Ibisevic to this team and you’d have a squad challenging for the semifinals, certainly.

But back to the game.  It’s hard to say that the result wasn’t deserved.  Ghana were certainly the better team.  Still, Serbia did a good job of keeping half and quarter chances from turning into full-blown opportunities and probably could have held out for a draw, or even a late winner, if not for the utter stupidity of a couple of their players.  First, the sending off.  Both cards were a bit harsh, maybe, but I can’t really see how they could have any serious complaints.  Particularly the second one: when you’re already on a yellow you need to be careful.  Particularly when you’re not in a crucial area. It’s not like the foul was necessary to prevent a goal or something.

Serbia actually looked a bit more lively after the sending off, I think because it put some fear into them and made them think they probably needed to attack because the draw was in serious danger.  But this left them a bit exposed.  Which led to the penalty.  Here, the decision-making was even more inexplicable.  I guess he thought he was going to fool the ref.  But really, that’s just crazy.  It was a dangerous cross but not terrifying.  And the consequences of getting caught are a virtual certainty of giving up a goal.  Just a stupid stupid split-second decision. No two ways about it.

Serbia’s backs are really to the wall now.  They basically have to get a result against Germany…which is certainly doable but probably not if both teams play the way they did today.  Which means the finely balanced group where everyone had a strong chance of going through might be done and dusted after two games.  That would be a shame.

Germany 4 – 0 Australia

Very little to say about this.  Germany looked good, much better than I expected. Podolski and Klose both scored, once again defying all evidence from their club seasons.  Australia was probably not going to pose a real threat, but Cahill’s sending off (which was pretty harsh: technically correct perhaps but really deserved a yellow at most) pretty much slammed the door. As it was they were lucky to get away only conceding 4.

That said, I don’t think Australia is a pushover.  They looked bad today, but might still give Ghana or Serbia a surprise.

As for Germany, they played in a very non-German fashion.  Lots of slick passing, tremendous use of pace and movement.  Ozil, in particular, showed why people have been raving about him.  I don’t think they can really hang with the very best, but I’m less sure of that now than I was a week ago.  And definitely watch out for them in Euro 2012.  With a bit more experience the young guns could be ready to reinstate some German dominance.

I’m going to try to get up at 4:30 again to watch Netherlands v. Denmark–which is one of my most anticipated group stage games.  We’ll see how that goes.  I’m less excited about the other two, so may fall back asleep.  But here are the predictions:

• Netherlands 3 – 1 Denmark
• Japan 1 – 2 Cameroon
• Italy 1 – 1 Paraguay

My prediction record so far has been okay, not great.  4 out of 8 results right.  So a bit better than random. Wooo for that.

Built To Spill – Built to Spill

Day two of the World Cup brought a bit of excitement, a few really nice moves, and the goalkeeping blunder of the tournament.

South Korea 2 – 0 Greece

I did not wake up at 4 AM to watch the South Korea – Greece game, which is a shame because it sounds like what I had picked as a dire 0-0 turns out to have been maybe the most exciting match of the tournament.  I watched a few pieces of it on replay this evening and Greece (who I thought had a good chance out of this group) looked miserably bad.  South Korea, on the other hand, was lively and incisive.  I picked Nigeria to finish second in the group, but if South Korea can play like that, they’ll destroy Nigeria.

Argentina 1 – 0 Nigeria

For the other match in Group B, Argentina put in almost precisely the sort of performance you’d have expected.  Many flashes of brilliance, some sumptuous moves from Messi, and an absolute inability to competently defend.  If the lesson from day 1 is that a terrible manager can make good players look bad, the lesson from day 2 is that a spastic manager makes his team look spastic.  No, Argentina didn’t look nearly as poor as France did.  If not for Vincent Enyeama (the Nigerian keeper) having the game of his life, they’d have been up by 3 or 4 goals by halftime.  Messi, in particular, had two or three potential goals saved.

Nevertheless, Nigeria had some solid chances themselves and Argentina can count themselves lucky for not tossing away the 3 points.

To my eyes, the biggest problems with the team were 1) the insanity of making Veron their only option for a deep-lying playmaker, 2) the belief that Gutierrez is good, 3) the belief that Gutierrez, even if he was good, can play fullback, and 4) an appalling performance from Higuain.

Number 4 can’t be blamed on Maradona.  And while there’s a strong case for making Milito the first choice for that role (he might work better with Messi, and is an outstanding player), I don’t think it’s a terrible idea to play Higuain. Despite his performance today, he’s a world class striker.

Numbers 2 and 3 are Maradona’s fault up the yin-yang.  It’s particularly aggravating when Javier Zanetti–the old stalwart who just had a marvelous season for European champions Inter–got left at home.  Seriously, the idea that a team might leave Zanetti at home and start Jonas Gutierrez is just embarrassing.

Number 1 is, again, a major Maradona problem.  Veron has never really lived up to his promise.  And now, he’s a good 6 or 7 years past his prime.  He’s slow, is prone to hitting shots that pose more danger to low-flying airplanes than to the keeper, and his signature move today was to make an inch-perfect pass directly to the feet of a Nigerian defender. And not only is he lacking pace, he also just plays languidly.  He doesn’t do quick give and goes.  He doesn’t pass while running.  He might have fit into a team from the 70s, but in the modern game he just leaves the Argentina attack in first gear when players like Messi and Tevez are amped up and ready to tear teams apart with movement and pace.  Once again, you’d have to think Argentina fans are tearing their hair out at the thought that Cambiasso (who also had a brilliant season with Inter) isn’t in South Africa.

I picked Nigeria to come second in this group, which I’m feeling a bit unsure about now.  They really really missed John Obi Mikel in this game.  For them, he plays the role of distributor, who can manage the attack out of midfield, and exploit the weaknesses of the defense.  Their lack of someone who could competently play that role is the main reason why the weakness of Gutierrez and Heinze didn’t get exploited.

England 1 – 1 USA

A nervy, but well-deserved point for the US.  After feeling pretty confident that we were going to get beat soundly (I predicted a 4-1 loss), my heart sank when Gerrard buried the early goal.  It exemplified everything I was worried about.  Gooch made a bad mistake to let it build up and Clark totally missed his mark and let Gerrard get wide open to receive the pass.  In short, it was sloppy defending and a failure to close down to rescue the mistakes of others.  It was all made by a brilliant Heskey assist (more on that later).

However, instead of falling apart, the US took the goal as a challenge and responded with a fairly dominant 20 minutes.  Up until the 30th minute or so, the US was probably the better team, and had created several half-chances.  Still, though, control of the midfield wasn’t really translating into goal-scoring chances.  This is one of my biggest worries about the US going forward–the inability to link up the midfield with the strikers.  Donovan, on his day, can do this relatively well.  But it’s not his strong suit. And Bradley sometimes can as well.  But given this formation, it’s always going to be a weak point.  For games against Algeria and Slovenia, I hope that Torres gets brought in for Clark–he’s got the capacity to distribute that was lacking tonight.

Still, after the burst of sustained pressure, England started to re-assert itself.  And the US was reduced to taking pot-shots from distance.  Shots that were never really going to trouble the keeper.

Except, they did.  Clint Dempsey, a bit outside the penalty area, made a lovely series of twists and turns to free himself from his marker and then unleashed…a bit of a squibbling shot, no real pace, directly at the keeper.  And then Green suffered a breakdown in his blowout preventer, and simply let the ball squeak over the line.  It was horrific–easily the worst goalkeeping blunder I can think of for a recent World Cup.  And if you’ll permit me just a minute to sing my own praises: I totally called this one.  I’ve been saying for weeks that Hart was England’s best keeper, and it was only Capello’s desire to ‘play it safe’ preventing him from playing.  Well, here is Exhibit A.

Speaking of Capello’s selection, what about his other decisions?  There’s Heskey–who is an eternal debate all to himself.  This match showed the best and the worst of Heskey.  He was more responsible than anyone for the goal (good), but he missed an absolutely splendid chance when he hit the ball straight–and I do mean straight–at Tim Howard.  He also missed a couple great open header chances (bad).  But, he did a great job of winning headers and holding the ball (good) and also linking up play with the attacking midfielders (good).  However, those players did a miserable job of getting Rooney involved.  And Heskey himself (apart from the goal, of course) was not setting up chances but rather setting up other people so that they might create chances, which they mostly failed at.  So, should England play with Heskey?  I think probably not, but I don’t know that this game offered any new evidence.  Heskey–in spite of his misses–was one of England’s better players.

How about Gerrard and Lampard?  Can they play together?  I say no.  Every time they try, one tends to have a good game while the other is useless.  This time around, Gerrard was pretty good but Lampard was absolutely innocuous.  But more importantly, while Gerrard was good, the way he was good had a lot less utility than it should have.  I can’t think of a single time he made a pass to Lampard, or vice versa.  Which meant that despite England’s dominance of possession, they never really had any dangerous moves coming out of the midfield.

On the US side, my man of the match is Tim Howard, who made a couple great saves–and who played most of the game after suffering what looked like it might be a broken rib coming out to protect against a cross.  The other guy who I thought was superb was Cherundolo, who absolutely shut things down on that side of the pitch.  Milner and Wright-Phillips got dispossessed countless times by him, and he made a number of crucial tackles around the goal to frustrate attacks.

Gooch was somewhat at fault for the goal, and got beaten a couple times.  But he also made countless excellent challenges.  Without him, we would have been dead in the water.  Compared to his other games since coming back from injury he looked worlds better.

Dempsey and Donovan put in solid shifts.  I wish they could have gotten more involved in the attack, but they were probably more important for their defensive work–and for pinning the English fullbacks in their own half and really undermining England’s attempt to use width to stretch out the slow and creaky US defense.

Starting Findley with Altidore was a bit of a surprise, but in the absence of Charlie Davies I guess he’s the best we’ve got.  It worked okay, though I can’t say that we looked tremendously threatening.  The few good chances they put together were due almost entirely to pace.  The one exception was Altidore’s chance in the second half that almost put the US in the lead.  That one was about pace (Altidore blowing past Carragher), but was more impressive than that.  After beating Carragher, Altidore showed some nice skill on the ball to keep it under control, and showed serious strength to hold off the defender and give himself time to create the shot.

I know Altidore had a rough year at Hull, so people are a bit down on him.  But the guy is still very young, and plays like that show just how much potential he has.  And let’s face facts, it’s tough to score goals playing striker for a terrible team like Hull who aren’t going to give you many chances.  Altidore isn’t the second coming, but he is the best striker we’ve got right now and our chances for the tournament rest a lot on him.

Final thoughts: I know a lot of English pundits are very down on their team right now.  And that’s understandable.  But this wasn’t a shocking performance.  They were the better team, and this was the toughest opponent in their group.  Sure, this display doesn’t suggest ‘World Cup winner’–but did people really think that England was a favorite to win the tournament?  It wasn’t a great game, but there were some flashes of a very good team.  And once Barry comes back some of the tactical problems will resolve themselves.  I still think England is probably among the 6 or 7 teams with realistic chances of winning it.  Not favorites, but not impossibilities.

My predictions for tomorrow:

• Algeria 1 – 2 Slovenia
• Serbia 2 – 1 Ghana
• Germany 3 – 1 Australia

This will be the first big test for finding out if Serbia is as good as I think they are, or if they’re just flattering to deceive.

All in all, a good opening day for the World Cup.  The first match was awesome, with some riveting moves by Mexico and an absolutely brilliant goal from South Africa.  Yes, the France-Uruguay game was pretty agonizing to watch but a) you have to respect the work ethic it takes to shut a team down like that and b) it was still exciting to consider what two draws means for the next round of games in the group.  With everyone still tied on points, everything is wide open.  Any of these four teams could qualify – and we’re guaranteed that they’ll all have at least a shot on the third matchday for the group.

Going in, I predicted France to top the group. I figured that they would play up to their talent and all the stupid dressing room stuff and dumb managing decisions would fade into the background.  Based on the evidence today, I might have misjudged.  I still think they’re the favorites to win the group but…yikes.  You’d have to try pretty hard to get it more wrong than Domenech did, and some of the French players were just miserably bad.  Gourcuff in particular was absolutely terrible.  His two main moves were to 1) get the ball in a promising area and pick out an inch-perfect pass right to the feet of a Uruguayan defender and 2) to smash the ball about 300 feet high and wide.  Govou wasn’t much better.  I really wish he had scored the goal early on that he missed, because it would have forced Uruguay to actually attack a bit more.  As it was, they happily sat back and soaked up the pressure–while France appeared to have no clue how to make something happen.

Zonal Marking (a great, great site) says that Domenech got the tactics right, based on the theory that you don’t want to go 4-4-2 against a 3 man defense–because it will leave you lacking in both the midfield and the final third.  I’m going to respectfully disagree, though. For one thing, Uruguay was simply not even trying to play in the midfield.  It wasn’t really a 3 man defense–they pretty much always had at least six bodies back.  If a 4-4-2 had drawn them out to contest the midfield the superior skill of the French players probably would have been enough to make something happen.  For another thing, there’s tactics and then there’s basic strategy.  Those players looked lost and the overwhelming majority of them seemed to have no idea to play the role they had been assigned.  It would have been SO easy to just stick Henry and Anelka up front, put Malouda and Ribery on the wings, and go to town.  It might be tactically simplistic but sometimes simple works.

Anyways, I still do think their talent wins out, but if they don’t look any better in match 2, I’ll have to concede that the haters were right and that they’re complete pants.

In other news, John Oliver’s take on the US and the World Cup is awesome:

Finally, there’s a modestly obnoxious article from Daniel Gross at Slate about how it’s lonely to be a soccer fan in America.  You find countless articles like this whenever the World Cup rolls around, saying things like “when will the sport get big in America? It’s always being promised,” or citing a few anecdotal examples that make it sound like it’s some unique experience trying to love this sport in such a backwater country.

One example from this article:

Yes, pubs and sports bars will be showing the games. But how many people will leave work, or take the day off, or skip the Little League game or pool party, to sit indoors and watch a soccer match? My guess is that when the U.S. plays England, the bars in New York and Los Angeles will be like Condé Nast in the 1990s—overrun with Brits.

Well, four years ago I was in Boston and wanted to watch the matches.  I went to John Harvards in Cambridge, where each one of the approximately 30 TVs in the place was showing the World Cup.  In fact, there was one in the corner that had the Red Sox on–until some people came in, sat in front of it, and requested that it be changed so they could watch the Czech Republic and Ghana.  Later in the summer, I was in some little vacation town on the western coast of Michigan (it might have even been on the 4th of July?) and the first pub I went into was showing the semifinals.  The place was probably 2/3 full and most of the people were at least casually watching.

Clearly these are not a universal experiences.  It’s not like the major US sports which are ubiquitous.  But that’s fine.  It doesn’t need to be.  In a strange way, it’s a bizarre and frustratingly American phenomenon to think that something is sad or not really worthwhile unless it’s the absolute biggest and best.  I’m happy with the World Cup being something I can share with a lot of people…but I don’t need the whole country to shut down a la Brazil or something just because it’s on in order to feel validated.

Final thought: on my predictions for the matches.  I called Mexico – South Africa as a 1-1, but thought France would win 1-0.  So that’s 1/2 so far.  My guesses for tomorrow:

• South Korea 0 – 0 Greece
• Argentina 2 – 0 Nigeria
• England 4 – 1 USA

I can see the England-US game going very similar to a match we had against Argentina back at the Copa America a few years ago.  We take an early lead, feel on top of the world for a short while, and then get hideously exposed at the back and are hanging on for dear life at the end.  The reason why I’m predicting Slovenia to qualify ahead of us is pretty much based on the spanking I think we’re going to get tomorrow ruining our goal difference.  Still, I’m hoping for a little bit of magic from Dempsey, a glimpse of the Beasley of a couple years ago, and the bulldoggedness of Michael Bradley being enough to shut things down in the midfield.  Oh, and I’m hoping Cappelo goes for caution and picks Green (who I think is mediocre at best) rather than Hart (who is pretty clearly the best keeper they’ve got available).

The Boy Done Good – Billy Bragg

Tomorrow is the first game of the World Cup, without a doubt the biggest sporting event on the planet.  But it’s much more than that, too.  It’s a chance to prove that nationalism can be expressed positively rather than negatively, where feelings of attachment to arbitrary lines becomes a means for expressing mutual excitement and respect.  It’s a chance to see multi-millionaire athletes giving absolutely everything they have–risking an injury that could devastate their money-making capabilities–to win a game with very little actual monetary stake.

It’s a chance to see those same multi-millionaire, world famous names (Ronaldo or Messi or Henry) rubbing elbows with people that no one has ever heard of (quick, name 3 players for New Zealand).  It’s an opportunity for upsets that defy belief, for some scrappy team to overcome a side where every starting player makes more per year than the whole squad combined.

It’s a chance to watch colonial powers taking on their former colonies–and often being beaten soundly.

For those of us in the US, it’s also a wonderful chance to experience what it feels like to simply root for your nation without feeling guilty, but also without shame.  If the Olympics often feels depressing because it’s dominated by the political and economic superpowers, there’s something magical about a sport loved by people in every corner of the globe where the US and China are far from the top.  But where the US used to be a bit of an embarrassment, that’s no longer the case either.  The current batch of players has every reason to think they can make it to the second round, maybe further.  But they also have absolutely no assurances that they won’t get bounced out after three quick losses.  In short, we’re on the same plane as pretty much everyone else: plucky underdogs hoping to make good in the shadow of the big guns.

But more than anything else, it’s about simply watching the beautiful game unfold, and knowing that you’re sharing the experience with literally billions of people around the planet.

I’ll be posting a lot over the next month, about matches, about players, about great goals, hopefully about some brilliant performances from Messrs Dempsey and Bradley and Donovan, but before things kick off, I figured I can put on my prognosticator’s hat and offer my predictions.

Group A: This is one of the toughest groups to call.  You never want to bet against the host nation, even when they’re as mediocre as South Africa.  And Uruguay is an interesting team, too.  But I think people underestimate both France and Mexico.  Yes, they each had rotten qualifying campaigns (and France is there illegitimately, of course), but in the end talent wins out, I think.  And France is LOADED.  Mexico, also, is full of some really great players.  Think of them as Spain-lite.  If you want a true dark horse pick to win the whole thing, Mexico might be the one.  1st: France. 2nd: Mexico.

Group B: For Argentina, see my comments above about France and Mexico.  Except multiply them.  I know people want to laugh about Maradona, but this is a ridiculously good squad.  The attackers get all the press, of course (only Spain *might* have better players up front) but I think the defense is a bit underrated, too.  Apart from Brazil and Spain, I think Argentina has the best chance to win the whole thing.  Of the other three teams here, I could see any of them qualifying.  My heart says Nigeria will scrape through, but my head is telling me that Greece will be able to stifle their way to a second place finish.  In this case, my heart wins.  1st: Argentina.  2nd: Nigeria.

Group C: The big one.  This England team isn’t as good as the 2006 version except for the possibility of a healthy and more mature Wayne Rooney.  I think they’ll really suffer at some point for not having a genuine holding midfielder (Barry is both injured and not that great at the role anyways) and for their weakness at goalkeeper.  But I don’t see either of those things being a problem in the group stages where they should be able to steamroll over the relatively weak opposition.  I’d like to think the US might be able to sneak a victory–and anything is possible–but honestly I just don’t see how we can contain Rooney.  I also am absolutely terrified at the prospect of Cole and Johnson bombing forward and destroying our fullbacks.  I think that the only hope is to play 4-5-1, try to stifle the game in the midfield, and don’t venture forward much and risk losing shape. It doesn’t make me happy to go into the opening match hoping that we can successfully get 10 men behind the ball. But I also don’t want to lose 4-1.  Especially since I think the group could come down to both the US and Slovenia losing to England, beating Algeria, and drawing with each other. Which would make goal difference pretty huge.  I’m really worried that the structure of the matches (where we get England first when they’ll be chomping at the bit and might bring the hammer down) might be the doom of the US.  1st: England.  2nd: Slovenia.  But I hope I’m wrong.

Group D: Group G is usually considered the ‘group of death’ but I think this one is equal to it.  All four of these teams could make a deep run in the tournament.  You can never rule out Germany, and Serbia has every chance to stun some people.  They’ve got a ridiculously good back line and some great attacking talent.  Ghana took a hit in losing Essien (who I think is one of the 5 or 10 best players in the world) which may doom them, but even without him they’ve got a great team.  They did perfectly fine without him at the Africa Cup of Nations for example.  Australia made the last 16 in 2006 and looks to be as good or better this time around–though if Cahill is out they might be in trouble.  In another group, they’d do well.  In this one, they’ll probably finish last.  1st: Serbia. 2nd: Germany.

Group E: The Netherlands should dominate this group.  Their weakness is with the back four, but a) their holding midfielders are quality and will buttress the defense b) they’ll control enough possession that this won’t be as threatening as it would against the major powers and c) the other teams in this group just don’t have the attacking talent to really threaten them.  Denmark is underrated by a lot of people.  They qualified out of a tough group, handling Portugal pretty easily.  At the same time, their best player is Bendtner, who is better than his detractors will admit, but is not world class.  Cameroon have Eto’o, who is world class, but I don’t think they have the right cast around him to utilize his abilities.  He’s best at moving off the ball and getting into space, tearing apart defenses, and keeping the game open.  But he needs quality service for that to work.  If he consistently has to go back to pick up the ball himself, most of his talents will be wasted.  As for Japan, I wouldn’t be shocked if they made it through, but I haven’t seen a lot to really impress me from them either.  1st: Netherlands.  2nd: Cameroon.

Group F: The easiest group, I think.  Italy is pretty weak by their high standards, but they should have no trouble topping this group.  New Zealand will be lucky to do as well as Trinidad and Tobago did in 2006.  Which means the battle for second place is between Paraguary and Slovakia.  I don’t know enough about either to really make a qualified guess there, but my gut says that Slovaka will pull it out. 1st: Italy. 2nd: Slovakia.

Group G: Despite the ‘group of death’ label, I don’t see this one as too hard to call.  Brazil seems pretty unstoppable at this point, with really the only weakness being a reliance on an out-of-form Kaka to serve as playmaker.  But I just don’t see Portugal or Ivory Coast exploiting that.  So Brazil wins comfortably and North Korea seems unlikely to challenge the big fish in the group.  Even before Drogba got hurt I thought Portugal would probably pull this off.  Now that Drogba is either out, or is going to have to play injured, I think that’s an even easier call.  1st: Brazil. 2nd: Portugal.

Group H: Spain wins this one at a canter.  I’m not sure any of them is better than Poland–who Spain just dismantled 6-0.  Any of the other three could very easily take second.  I think Honduras is better than people give them credit for, but Chile is my pick for second.  If for no other reason than their fascinating tactics.  1st: Spain.  2nd: Chile.

Assuming all those predictions hold, that sets up the following Second Round matches:

• France over Nigeria
• England over Germany
• Netherlands over Slovakia
• Brazil over Chile
• Argentina over Mexico
• Serbia over Slovenia
• Cameroon over Italy
• Spain over Portugal

For the quarterfinals:

• England over France
• Argentina over Serbia
• Brazil over Netherlands
• Spain over Cameroon

Semis:

• Argentina over Spain
• Brazil over England (John Terry missing the penalty and sending Brazil through)

And after all that, I think Brazil wins their 6th title.

Golden Boot: David Villa

Golden Ball: Kaka.  I think he’ll play like he did a couple years ago for Milan. But I also think he’ll get this almost by default since the real winner should be the entire back line but no one is going to stand out enough to deserve it.  Plus, no one is going to award the Golden Ball to a defender from Brazil.