Heartache With Hard Work

Thus ends the opening stage of the World Cup.  It’s been a pretty great experience. Sure, there were the concerns about the dearth of goals and the defensive nature of play.  But things have mostly righted themselves.  And if the play has been marginally less ‘exciting’ the rest of it has been gripping.  Watching major nations get knocked out early, while smaller ones made their mark.  Watching some great last minute frenetic action in a number of games.  Watching teams with everything to play for leaving it all out on the pitch.  And, perhaps most importantly, seeing Europe the weakest it’s ever been – with only six European sides entering the knockout phase.  It’s a good day for everyone else in the world.

Portugal 0 – 0 Brazil
North Korea 0 – 3 Ivory Coast

I only watched the former game, and not all of it. Frankly, it was a bit of a snooze.  Lots of passion and crunching tackles in the first half, but as time went on and Ivory Coast failed to accumulate any more goals, the passion seemed to fade.  Bizarrely, a match between Brazil and Portugal featured two of the most defensively-minded teams at the tournament this year.

I heard lots of complaints about Cristiano Ronaldo being selfish and refusing to pass to his teammates, but I don’t see it.  He was playing on his own as a forward – and was regularly pretty isolated.  Given the lack of attacking desire and talent around him, and given his ability (probably the best in the world) to generate something out of nothing, I can see how it would make sense to let him loose and see if he can work some magic.

These games were mostly for show anyways.  It’s really a testament to this tournament that these were probably the only games so far without really anything to play for.

Thanks to winning this group, and the results later in the day, Brazil has what looks to be a pretty easy route to the finals.  Of course, ‘easy’ is a comparative term.  It’s never actually easy.  But compared to England (who might have to beat Germany, Argentina, and Spain to get that far), it looks a simpler task.  Given that I picked Brazil to win, I’m not going to change my position now.

Chile 1 – 2 Spain
Switzerland 0 – 0 Honduras

The path was a bit strewn with rubble, and it took some peculiar happenings, but it’s hard to argue with Spain and Chile being the final teams to join the second round.  Switzerland put in a heroic performance to hold Spain and then snatch a win, but they have not impressed apart from that.  Meanwhile, Chile and Spain have each been great in their own way.

The Spain/Chile game was exceptionally strange.  Chile were great to start things off, controlling the game and shutting down the Spanish offense.  For most of the first half, it seemed like Spain was playing more of a counter-attacking offense–something antithetical to their usual style.

Once again, though, I think this demonstrates that they do in fact have the ability to play in different ways (a Plan B).  They looked pretty deadly on the counter despite getting dominated in the midfield and could have scored several goals before the one they got.  Speaking of which: in some ways I’d consider Spain’s opening effort to be the goal of the tournament.  It wasn’t the ‘best’ goal by any stretch, but it might be the most fun.  A long pass to Torres which posed some serious danger, with the hint that he might latch onto it and be one-on-one with the keeper.  Given Chile’s high defensive line this is a constant danger (a point that I would not have processed if not for the always interesting and often brilliant Zonal Marking), making it necessary for the keeper to come out and end the danger.

The problem in this instance is that the keeper failed to effectively clear the ball.  If you’re going to come 40 yards off your line you absolutely HAVE to knock it out of play or deep into the opponent’s half.  Instead he only pinged it up around the halfway line where David Villa was waiting to stroke it first time coolly and cleanly right back into the back of the net.  He made it look easy but the precision and calmness necessary to take that opportunity and waste zero time depositing it into the goal is astonishing.

A little later, Spain got their second, and it looked like the rout might be on.  Iniesta was given an opportunity and slotted it nicely in–demonstrating the kind of finishing that would have put the US up by 6 or 7 goals the other day if they could match it.  And on that play, Estrada was shown a second yellow.  Now, there will be a lot of discussion about this as another refereeing mistake–and it absolutely was.  There was no malice, certainly, and I’m not entirely convinced that he even clipped Torres at all–but I do think it’s worth mentioning that Chile were just begging to get a man sent off.  They were jumping into rash challenges all day, and Estrada himself was lucky to still be on the pitch at all.  They had only a few minutes before fouled Torres in the box and Spain could very easily have been given a penalty.  There was a clear Beckham-esque stamp on Torres earlier in the game that only got a yellow.

It’s part of what is fascinating about Chile, actually.  That they can play such beautiful and smooth attacking football seems to necessarily mean that they have to be vicious and a tiny bit reckless in order to recover on the other side.

All of which means both of these teams will find themselves in fascinating second round games.  You’d have to favor Spain and Brazil to beat Portugal and Chile–but in their own way each offers something really amazing.  Spain and Brazil are the favorites, but the latter two have put on shows in this tournament that the bigger kids haven’t really matched.

So that’s the end of the opening round.  Now it’s win or go home all the way out.  And of course, the biggest one for me is happening tomorrow, when the US takes on Ghana.  Predictions for the two games tomorrow:

• Uruguay 2 – 0 South Korea
• USA 1 – 1 Ghana (US wins on penalties)

I have a hard time seeing South Korea beating Uruguay, though I’ve underestimated them so far.  It’s not that I think Uruguay is that great–it’s just that they seem very good at dictating the tone of the game, which I think will really frustrate Korea and give Forlan and co. a chance to pick out a few choice opportunities to score, which they will take.

I have a very hard time calling the US game.  I think it’s pretty evenly matched.  Ghana with a full-strength Essien would be a clear favorite, but without him they’re not just missing a talisman, they’re missing the one guy with the individual skill to bust a game apart by himself.  As it is, we’ve got two industrious moderately-skilled teams with some glaring weaknesses. So while I’m predicting a closely-fought draw, I wouldn’t be shocked if either team blew the other out of the water.  I’m predicting a US win on penalties, but really, picking a team to win once it goes to penalties is even more of a fool’s game than the usual prediction business.

I’m a bit worried about running out a 4-4-2 against that Ghana midfield.  They’re very good and I worry that Bradley will end up completely neutralized, and that we’ll lose control of the midfield right out of the gate.  That said, Bradley has earned some credit in recent years.  He doesn’t get out-managed often but also seems to recognize that messing around tactically too much isn’t worth the confusion that it can create.

A nice piece on the game can be found here, from Jonathan Wilson.

Final thought before sleep.  Reading Mick McCarthy’s list of his favorite players of the tournament is a good demonstration of the problems with English managers.  Evidence:

Central midfield: Juan Sebastian Veron (Argentina) The veteran Argentinean would be my sitter. He is 35 now but has dictated every game he has played. He keeps it, passes it and I think he’s given the ball away once in this tournament – a real collector’s item. He looks, moves and dominates like a man ten year’s younger.

Wow.  Just wow.  If by ‘dictated’ you mean ‘either gave up the ball under no pressure or skied it about 50 yards over the crossbar’ then sure.

A Europewide Search For Love – Ballboy

World Champions no longer, Italy are out.  So are the 2006 runners up.  Spain, England, and Germany were/are in serious danger.  Denmark got thumped by a Japan team that I used to think was pretty unimpressive.  Of all the European teams, only the Dutch have made it through the group stage without a moment of crisis, and they are playing the dullest, most boring football they’ve had in decades.

Meanwhile, three South American teams have won their groups, while the other two might well do so tomorrow.  The US won its group, while Mexico also qualified.  Two Asian teams have qualified.  The team from Oceania didn’t lose a game.

Down is up, left is right, the ball is a square, and the Germans missed a penalty. What is going on?!

Slovakia 3 – 2 Italy
Paraguay 0 – 0 New Zealand

I should have stuck with my 0-0 predictions in these games.  Would have got one of them right.  The less said about that one the better.  The other, though, was one of the strangest and most fascinating games of the tournament.  Up until about 2/3 of the way through Italy looked completely hopeless and I began to wonder if there was a curse on Western Europe.  In the last 20 minutes they were amazing – showing the vitality of an Italy side of old.  Too little, too late, though.  Still, with a bit of help from the esteemed Howard Webb they still might have come through.  Sadly for them, it was not to be.  Instead, a Slovakia team that bored me to tears in their first two games has emerged triumphant and Italy has finished at the bottom of their group.

Remember, of course, that Group F was supposed to be the ‘group of life’ – the easiest possible group.  The group that even a terrible Italy team couldn’t help but win.  While their collapse wasn’t as loud or as stupid as the French one, it’s verging on the same degree.  Especially when you consider that they have a genuinely world class manager in Lippi, as compared to the Clown Brigade who was running France.

If you’ll permit me just a tiny bit of schadenfreude: how do you like that decision to play for Italy now, Mr. Rossi?

Denmark 1 – 3 Japan
Cameroon 1 – 2 Netherlands

In attempting to watch both these games on ESPN 3 while also dealing with debate camp, I managed to miss most of the big moments. The big story here is that–if my memory is correct–Japan scored more free kick goals in this game than the entire rest of the tournament.  They were both deliciously taken.  And they pretty much had the run of the game so the result was well-deserved.  I didn’t catch all that much of the Dutch but it didn’t seem like they did a whole lot to impress–apart from yet again getting the three points.  Which this year is actually quite impressive.

These results provide yet another incentive for Spain to win their group: not only would they miss Brazil but their possible quarterfinal match-up would be Japan or Paraguay.  Like I said, crazy tournament.  If Spain can’t win their group, it would leave two routes to the semifinals populated entirely by teams that virtually no one would have taken for the quarters much less the semis.

Imagine if one quarter of the bracket contained the Dutch, Spain, and Brazil, while their opposing side was filled by Switzerland, Paraguay, Japan, and Portugal.  And we already talked yesterday about Argentina/Mexico/Germany/England looking across the water at Uruguay/South Korea/USA/Ghana.

Absolutely nuts.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Portugal 1 – 1 Brazil
• North Korea 0 – 2 Ivory Coast
• Chile 1 – 2 Spain
• Switzerland 1 – 0 Honduras

I don’t see Brazil and Portugal completely giving up on playing, but I can’t see that game have a ton of energy.  As long as Ivory Coast don’t score 3 or 4 early goals, Portugal won’t have any urgency and Brazil won’t worry too much either.

The real fireworks are in Group H, where I think three teams will finish on 6 points and it will all come down to goal difference.  If the results I’ve predicted happen, Chile will beat the Swiss on the goals-scored tiebreaker.

There’s all kinds of complications there though.  If I’ve sorted it out correctly: if Spain wins, the Swiss absolutely MUST score more goals than Chile.  A set of 1-0s would also send Chile through on head-to-head tiebreakers.  If Chile can get a result, the Swiss just need to get a better result than Spain.  To win the group, the Swiss would need for them and Spain to win, and for both the Spain margin of victory to be smaller AND for the number of Spanish goals to be smaller.

Actually, I’m going to create a cheat-sheet for when I’m watching this to keep it all sorted out in my head.

The question that remains is whether Europe can restore just a little bit of its dignity by sending three more teams through, or whether Chile will make it 5/5 for South American sides.  If Chile does get through, and if South America ends up with 4 of the 8 teams in the quarterfinals–a very real possibility–will it finally be time to seriously consider stripping UEFA of a spot or two?  I lean towards saying no.  Europe was extremely dominant in 2006, so this may just bit a matter of small sample size.  In addition, several very good European teams didn’t make it.  Croatia, Russia, and Bosnia are certainly top-class teams.  The Czech youngsters will be pretty good by 2014, I think.  Turkey remains good.  Etc.

Final set of group games tomorrow.  And then we get to start watching knockout games on Saturday.  Very very exciting.

American Tune – Paul Simon
America, Fuck Yeah – Team America: World Police

USA 1 – 0 Algeria
Slovenia 0 – 1 England

What a game! What an exciting day to be a fan of American soccer!  I watched the match in an awesome beer garden out in Astoria, with a bunch of other folks who were just as tense and concerned as I was.  It’s a strange experience, to be surrounded by people on the edge of their seats, jumping up in unison, screaming at the screen, castigating our players with one breath and then heaping praise on them with the next.  I have no idea if soccer is going to “make it” in America, or even what that means.  All I know is that I had one of the great shared sporting experiences of my life today, reveling in the goal that took 91 minutes of dominance to finally come.

I’m not going to go into details on the games today, because I was simply too amped up to really pay attention to precisely who did what and where.  I know that the US looked great, apart from an absolute inability to finish.  Bradley in particular seemed to be a rampaging force, creating near-goals, stopping Algerian attacks cold, and generally dominating the midfield.  Still, the finishing…

At one point in the middle of the second half I sent a despairing text to a friend saying “right now the US could have a penalty kick with an open goal and would still miss,” but looking back I’m not even sure I can remember all the chances that were spurned.  All I know is that Donovan finally put one into the net.  And I remember that the initial act that got things started was Tim Howard hurling the ball a good 50 yards to land right at the feet of his target–and how we all commented on the astonishing strength and accuracy.  It’s an underrated part of goalkeeping, but Howard showed today why it matters.

And, of course, the disallowed goal!  I can understand why the linesman made the decision.  It was very close and you have to call it like you see it.  But still.  Another decision against the US, one that almost sent us out.  I was ready to consider all the conspiracy theories by the 80th minute, that FIFA didn’t want the US to qualify, that the world was out to get us, etc.  But since it all worked out and we topped the group, I’m just going to forget that it happened and look forward.

As for Algeria, all I can say is booooooooo!  They gave three teams a very VERY hard time in the World Cup, but in the end all they can show for it is a total of zero goals, and a record of playing shockingly defensive football into the dying minutes of a game that they absolutely had to win.  They even subbed out their best attacking players, as far as I could tell, in order to better frustrate the opposition.  Apart from France, they have to be the most disappointing team in the tournament since they seemed to show some genuine ability to play the game on the few occasions they strayed forward.  You have to take some risks, my friends.

As for the other game, Slovenia looked atrocious.  Really, apart from the first half against the US they’ve looked pretty awful the whole way around. Which, of course, puts the US and England records into a bit of perspective.  As elated as I am right now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves.  England were serviceable, playing about as well as they did against the US.  But, since there was no major goalkeeping error, they got a clean sheet out of it and qualified.  This means they hype machine will rev up again a bit, but I think the proper assessment would be right where people were thinking after the first game.  This is a strong, but deeply flawed, team that might beat anyone if things break right but simply isn’t good enough to expect to win against top level competition with any regularity.

They might beat Germany–I haven’t decided yet who I rate as favorites–but if they do they’ll face another very tough team in the quarters (Argentina, or maybe Mexico) and it seems extremely unlikely they’ll get further than that.  I wasn’t paying close enough attention to really comment about the big issues (do they look better with Defoe, is Rooney carrying an injury that has made him rubbish, how did their shape look, etc.).

Ghana 0 – 1 Germany
Australia 2 – 1 Serbia

I didn’t watch these games.  I don’t know what happened in them, except that Serbia might have been hard done by in being denied a goal that would have put them ahead 1-0 and might have changed the complexion of the rest of the game.  And even if it hadn’t, a 2-2 draw would have sent them through.  But I don’t even know the details.  I might try and watch the replays of them tomorrow, but with four more games on, the chances are low.

These results set up some VERY interesting games in the top half of the bracket.  The US plays Ghana, who knocked us out (effectively) in 2006, thanks in some part to another slightly dodgy refereeing decision.  Those two teams are fairly evenly matched and I don’t know that there’s a clear favorite.  Probably Ghana gets the nod, but it’s close.  What’s truly interesting is that the quarterfinal matchup for the winner of this game would be Uruguay or South Korea: both good teams, but both eminently beatable.  I’m not saying that the chances are good, but there’s probably something like 15-20% odds on the US reaching the semifinals right now.  That’s amazing.

On the other side, you’ve got an all-time classic of England-Germany, which will be IMMENSELY entertaining for the neutrals, and will feature some tremendous false bravado from England fans.  And you’ve also got Argentina-Mexico, where Argentina is a clear favorite, but both teams are great, and quite pleasing on the eye.

You’d have to favor Argentina to be the representative in the semifinals from this side of the bracket, but…it’s a funny old game as they say.

Anyways, I have a lot more thoughts running through my head about the magical moment when the goal was finally scored, but I need to get to sleep.  DDW starts tomorrow, and I’ve got the opening lecture!

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Slovakia 0 – 1 Italy
• Paraguay 2 – 0 New Zealand
• Denmark 3 – 1 Japan
• Cameroon 1 – 1 Netherlands

Once again, I’m messing with my pre-tournament predictions.  I initially had both Group F games ending in listless 0-0 draws, but now that I know Italy need to win to be sure to go through, I think they’ll sneak a goal.  Similarly, since New Zealand have a genuine chance to advance, I think they’re going to get antsy and expose themselves at the back, letting in a couple goals as they chase the game.

In Group E, Cameroon has nothing to play for but pride, while the Dutch only need a point to ensure winning the group.  Denmark need to beat Japan to get through, but they’re much better than Japan, so this will probably happen.

Catch A Collapsing Star – The Mendonza Line

My predictions have been solid but not great so far, but I’m happy to say I got two spot-on today.  I failed in the first two games, due to continuing to overestimate the ability of talent to trump ridiculousness in the instance of the French, and due to continuing to underestimate the ability of Uruguay.  On the other hand, I perfectly guessed the other two, calling a 2-o for Argentina and a 2-2 draw for Nigeria and South Korea.

Mexico 0 – 1 Uruguay

A lot of people were tipping Uruguay as a dark horse before the tournament, and a lot of people laughed at them after the 0-0 bore-fest they had with France.  Presumably they’re going to get the plaudits they deserve now.  As someone who thought they wouldn’t make it out of the group, the main thing that I’ve been really impressed by is their ability to dominate in either attack or defense as necessary.  Against France they killed the game.  Against South Africa they ran rampant.  Against Mexico, they were strong but precise until they got a lead, after which they set up shop.  Their attacking talent is skillful enough to score on anyone, but also to pose a threat even while the rest of the team is sitting back deep.  The tactical flexibility suggests they can pose a threat to anyone at the tournament.  Combine that with a (relatively) easy draw in the second round, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them in the semifinals or even the finals.  I still don’t think they have the talent to string together 3 wins against top 10 competition, but…

Mexico simply couldn’t get anything going today.  They were fine, but didn’t pose much of a threat.  I saw them as another potential dark horse team for the semifinals and they’ve got the players to make it happen, but it would take some luck.  And now that they’re up against Argentina, it seems unlikely. That game looks to be wide open and a lot of fun, by the way.   Both teams have skillful, quick attacks (as long as Blanco isn’t playing) and are questionable in defense.

France 1 – 2 South Africa

I guess they can take solace in having scored a goal?  That makes it more impressive than their 2002 flameout, perhaps?

Honestly, the catastrophe that has been the French team is almost literally impossible to overstate.  Lunatic coach, player revolt, terrible performances across the board, embarrassing defending, shocking lack of precision in the attack.  I picked this team to make it to the quarters, and instead they’ve turned in one of the most astonishingly poor performances of any ‘major’ footballing nation in living memory.  Today there was a silly sending-off (a bit harsh, but at this point who is going to feel sympathy for Les Bleus?), a performance that makes ‘lackluster’ seem like a an impossible dream, and to cap it all off the final whistle blowing and Domenech refusing to shake the opposing coach’s hand, for reasons that no one can figure out.  It was stupefying.

It’s gotten to the point where there really is pretty much nothing that would surprise me about this team.  If a zombie Charles de Gaulle rose up out of the pitch in the 75th minute and ate Franck Ribery’s brain, I’d probably just shrug and wonder whether Domenech would bother to substitute for him.

South Africa can bow out with their heads held high.  They performed well against a good Mexico team and beat the reigning runners-up (even if it was in very specific and amazing circumstances), and could have qualified if not for a shellacking from Uruguay.

Nigeria 2 – 2 South Korea
Greece 0 – 2 Argentina

I’ll discuss these two together since I didn’t see either of them. A trip to the Brooklyn Botanical Garden was too enticing to turn down. I don’t feel that I missed that much. The Nigeria/South Korea game sounds like it was good spectacle but not particularly good football, and the other game sounds like it was neither.

I picked Nigeria to come second in this group and they almost managed it.  A terrible, terrible miss from Yakuba was the missing margin for victory and a date with Uruguay.  Instead it will be South Korea, making it out of the group stage for the first time outside of Asia, which is a nice showing for them.  Strangely, they’re the only team that I haven’t watched in the tournament at least once.  I’ve missed maybe 7 or 8 games total and they’ve been in 3 of them.  I’ll definitely have to catch them in their next game then.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Slovenia 1 – 3 England
• United States 2 – 1 Algeria
• Ghana 1 – 2 Germany
• Australia 0 – 3 Serbia

I won’t say too much about the first two games.  I’m a bit too close to them to really feel objective.  Instead I’ll direct you to an excellent article from Jonathan Wilson about US/Algeria.  It’s tricky knowing what to root for in the other game.  Obviously if the US can win, that’s the best world.  In that case I’d like to see England also win a) because it would give us a chance to win the group and b) because despite all their annoying elements I still kind of like the England team.  But if the US seems like they’re in danger of drawing, obviously we want a draw or Slovenia win.  On the other other hand, a US win combined with a low-scoring draw guarantees us the group.  So I think that’s what I’m hoping for: an early US goal to settle our nerves, and a tense 0-0 in the other game right up until the end.

For Group D: as I’ve said, I predicted all these games before the tournament started, and have almost universally stuck to my guesses.  But I’m changing my prediction in the Ghana/Germany game.  I had it as a 0-0 but after watching them play I simply can’t see that happening.  Add in that it’s a win-or-go-home situation for Germany and I have a feeling it will be feisty.

I think Serbia is going to give us a real performance, but just because I’m picking a big win doesn’t mean I’m not impressed by Australia.  They were quite good against Ghana and could pull off another big result here.

A day of chances taken and opportunities squandered.  Portugal showed the sort of attacking flair and dominance that was supposed to be impossible.  Chile impressed and dazzled – and yet ended the day finding themselves in serious danger of elimination despite acquiring 6 points from the first two games.  And Spain…they showed why people were tipping them as favorites, but only in patches.

Portugal 7 – 0 North Korea

Well, we’ve finally figured out where all the goals were hiding.  Both for the World Cup and for the Portugese.  7-0 is a blowout of epic proportions, and Portugal had plenty of other opportunities.  The amazing thing is that most of the goals they got were quite pretty.  The one exception is Cristiano Ronaldo’s which is probably the silliest goal he’s ever scored.  He appeared to not even know where the ball was until it dropped to his feet with him about 5 feet in front of an open goal.  That said, it’s worth pointing out that he was superb in this game.  He had several near-misses that would have been absolutely brilliant.  But more importantly, he was really shining as a playmaker, putting together all kinds of wonderful attacking moves.  If he can sustain that kind of vision and quality, Portugal can beat anyone.

North Korea, for all their heroics against Brazil, were revealed as the comparatively weak team that we all expected them to be.  In part, unfortunately, this had a lot to do with them attempting to attack more.  When they remained compact against Brazil (with a solid back five and their wing backs making only occasional quick forays up the field) they were almost impossible to break down.  Their work rate let them frustrate and contain.  In this game, they had fewer bodies back and also seemed to be playing a higher line.  The combination meant that all the work rate in the world was not going to be sufficient to overcome the incisive and crisp passing of Portugal.

Not to be too macabre, but I really hope nothing bad happens to the North Korean players based on this.

Chile 1 – 0 Switzerland

Another dominant performance from Chile, ruined by rubbish finishing. In a group where goal difference is likely to be huge, they may really come to regret the inability to translate countless opportunities into concrete goals.  Once again, they showed why their 3-3-1-3 style is so intriguing, so it would be really fun to watch them make it to the next round.  Unfortunately, they’ve given themselves a tough path.  Despite beating Switzerland, they’re probably going to have to get a result against Spain to make it out.  And to be honest that seems pretty unlikely.  If Spain has trouble with defensively minded teams they can’t break down, they’re beautiful passing is going to wreck havoc on a Chile team that relies on controlling the tempo and the ball.

As has happened in a few other games, a red card really changed things up.  Before that, the game was relatively even, with Chile having the better of it to some extent, but with both teams looking like possible winners.  Afterward, Chile was dominant, but the Swiss put in a very nice performance given the circumstances.  The only goal they conceded was marginally (okay, very marginally) offside, and they even had a last minute chance to equalize when they missed a glorious and simple opportunity right in front of the goal.

As for the red card…it was a bit harsh.  But given the card-happy ref, it wasn’t a very smart move.  Still, I want to move on from the specifics to a larger thought:

I normally think people complain too much about diving and such things.  Yes, it’s a problem and it’s frustrating when players aren’t touched and fall over.  But in a lot of circumstances where people are accused of diving that’s not really what happens.  They’re moving at intense speeds and even small disruptions can be enough to make you lose your balance.  Now, when that happens, they might well decide to lose some speed and try to recover.  Or, they can theatrically fall.  Given that the former option likely involves losing the advantage on the attack, it’s not unreasonable to choose the latter.  The problem, of course, is that refs generally don’t call falls if people don’t fall over.  That doesn’t mean the clip isn’t a foul–it just means that it doesn’t get called.

That said, the behavior of some of the players in the last couple days has been disgraceful.  Kaka got sent off yesterday for absolutely nothing, based on Keita running into him and then holding his face, which had not been touched.  It was embarrassing, and it’s even more embarrassing that there is no review process.  Now, I strongly support getting some kind of video evidence into the game, but even if you’re against that, I simply cannot understand the argument against using video evidence after the fact to go back and review things.  There is absolutely no reason for Kaka to miss a game.  And Keita should get a 3 match ban for that kind of behavior. There was more (slightly less absurd) play-acting in the Switzerland-Chile game, too.

This is even more of a problem in the World Cup, when millions of people who don’t normally watch the sport are tuned in.  If one of the biggest cliches that undermines support for the beautiful game is the specter of diving, it’s a major shame to see this kind of thing.

There’s exaggeration designed to win a penalty or a free kick, where you “draw” a foul or are looking for the slightest bit of contact to send you sprawling.  That’s lamentable but it seems silly to worry obsessively about it.  But that’s totally distinct from pretending to have been attacked.  I can be tolerant of the latter while having zero sympathy for the former.

Spain 2 – 0 Honduras

Another perfect prediction from me.  It really should have been closer to the Portugal scoreline, but Spain had enormous trouble finishing.  In some ways, it wasn’t much different from their first game.  Except that Honduras was far worse at defending and so let in two goals. A lot of people are going to say that Spain ‘rediscovered their touch’ or some such thing after this game.  I don’t see it.  By which I mean: I never thought that the first game was a major concern (except that it gave them no more margin for error or chance), and this game suggests that if they play as well as they normally do, they’ll beat most teams.  That was true going in, was true during the first game, and is true now.

In terms of specifics, I don’t have much.  The first goal was absolutely brilliant from Villa.  He could have had a hat trick if he hadn’t scuffed his penalty.  Given the number of people who bet on him to win the golden boot, I bet there was some anger in the gambling world about that one.  Torres still looks a bit lost.  He’s playing at about 75% of his peak level, which is still good.  But Spain is really going to need him to rediscover the magic he’s got when he’s completely on if they want to win the whole thing.  He is their ‘different look’ – the sort of player who can win headers, who can generate something out of nothing, and who can burn teams that make the tiniest mistakes.

Fabregas looked antsy when he came on.  I really think they need to get him some more minutes in the 3rd game.  He needs to settle down and stop trying to make every second he’s on the pitch an opportunity for World Cup Glory.

Looking forward, Spain is simply in a win-or-go-home situation.  Their goal difference is only 1 behind Chile, so if they beat them, they will jump ahead.  Simple as that.  Switzerland need to hope for that result and win their game against Honduras.  If they can do that, they will be through (unless both games finish 1-0 in which case I think it would go to drawing lots!).

Going in I thought Honduras could get some points, maybe a win, out of this group.  Based on the evidence so far it seems pretty unlikely. They look bad.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Mexico 2 – 2 Uruguay
• France 3 – 1 South Africa
• Nigeria 2 – 2 South Korea
• Greece 0 – 2 Argentina

Those results would make Uruguay first and Mexico second in Group A, and would Argentina first and South Korea second in Group B.

I reserve the right to change my mind when we find out whether France is even going to be able to field enough players willing to suit up, or if their implosion is going to reach epic proportions.  My theory for calling a win is that the pressure will be off, the catharsis will have been achieved, and the talent will shine through…now that it’s too late for it to matter.  But I could just as easily see them getting thumped 4-0 or something, or intentionally scoring own goals just to piss off Domenech.  At this point, who knows what kind of crazy things could happen.

I originally had the Argentina game as a 0-0 draw, but after watching Greece in action, I don’t see them posing much of a threat going forward and I also don’t think their defense is as good as I assumed it was.

The real game to watch there is S0uth Korea and Nigeria.  If Nigeria can scrape a win they still might go through, which I would like to see.

I spent most of the day yesterday on a bus from DC to New York.  A bus without air conditioning I might add.  Pretty miserable.  I also don’t have a very good internet connection which means I wasn’t able to watch the games I missed on ESPN 3 like I hoped.  That makes yesterday the first day I missed more than 90 minutes of the action.

Slovakia 0 – 2 Paraguay

I watched most of this one, but don’t have a lot to say. Slovakia looked weak an ineffectual. Paraguay (continuing the trend of South American dominance) looked well up for it.  Crisp passing, solid finishing, no-nonsense tackling.  I said yesterday that Slovakia pretty much had to win this game if they wanted to qualify, but that was on the presumption that Italy would win.  And…

Italy 1 – 1 New Zealand

Plucky New Zealand!  It sounds like this was a bizarre game, with some talking points on each of the goals.  The New Zealand one had a hint of offside depending on who was responsible for the little flick on, while the Italy penalty looked like a lot more simulation than genuine foul.  This is shaping up to be a seriously strange tournament.  Italy, France, England, Germany, and Spain all find themselves in situations where they absolutely must win their final games (in the case of Spain, they probably need to win their last two games) just to survive.  I still think most of them probably will make it, but if they don’t, it would make for the most surprising set of results from any World Cup I can think of.  And New Zealand is in a situation where a win in the last game would secure qualification!  Wow.

Brazil 3 – 1 Ivory Coast

I also completely missed this one, which is a shame as it sounds like a pretty good game.  Brazil is one of the only big teams who appear to be clicking.  Ivory Coast will regret losing this one, but may regret losing by two goals as much as anything else.  This one may well come down to them and Portugal both on 4 points, with it being decided on goal difference.  Though, as I said after the first round of games, the order of play really favors Portugal.  Brazil have already qualified and won’t need to play at full strength now, which gives Portugal a better chance of getting a result.

Predictions for tomorrow (well, today since the first game is just now starting as I post this):

• Portugal 1 – 0 North Korea
• Chile 0 – 1 Switzerland
• Spain 2 – 0 Honduras

That would put Spain and Chile in a de facto elimination game in the 3rd game of the group.  If Chile can get a result today, it means they would only need a draw against Spain

I wasn’t tremendously excited about any of the games today, but there was a decent amount of action in them to entice even the most neutral viewer.  For all the talk in the opening few days about this year being terrible, the pace and level of action has really picked up. Even if the goal averages are still pretty low, I’m happy with how things are going.

Netherlands 1 – 0 Japan

Dull, stuffy, uninspired, workmanlike, and solidly mediocre.  The Dutch haven’t impressed at all so far, and yet they’re sitting atop the group with 6 points and should easily finish first.  I bet all the big names that are struggling mightily would love to have the problems of the Dutch.  The goal from Sneijder was another keeper error, but a pretty understandable one.  I think his vision was a bit obstructed, and Sneijder really demolished the shot.  If the Jabulani has taken away some goals, this is the sort of thing that it provides.

Ghana 1 – 1 Australia

If the Dutch goal was forgivable, the Australian one was not.  On the Green-scale of howler, it was probably a 6.5 or 7.  Pretty terrible but not absurd.

The referee’s decision about the red card and penalty was right, but still was a bit of a shame.  You have to give a penalty there, even if the handball wasn’t intentional.  That shot would have gone in if Kewell’s arm hadn’t been there.  And once you give the penalty you have no choice but to give a red card, too.  There’s no room for discretion there.  It’s unfortunate, and is a perfect example of the problem posed by this rule.

After going a man down, Australia were immense.  They didn’t dominate like Germany did yesterday, but Ghana simply couldn’t produce good chances and couldn’t generate something special to get a goal out of quarter and half-chances.  Most of the best chances actually were Australian and they really ought to have scored at least one of them.  It would have made for a fascinating group if they could have snatched the win. Now, they’re basically eliminated, which is really a shame given how hard they fought today.

By the way, my pre-tournament prediction that Serbia would lead the group could still turn out correct, for all that it seemed unlikely a couple days ago.  If they beat Australia and Ghana get a result against Germany, it will be Serbia leading the group and Ghana finishing second.  I’m guessing not too many people predicted that.

Still, I think Germany wins their game and Serbia comes in second on goal difference.

Cameroon 1 – 2 Denmark

Now this was an exciting game.  If Australia had two or three chances they could/should have converted, both teams in this game had six or seven great opportunities.  It was, by far, the most open game so far. You can accuse them of poor defending (and you’d be right), but the offenses for both sides were really clicking, too.  The Danes’ first goal in particular was absolutely sublime.  The second wasn’t quite as good but was a fine piece of individual skill.

I picked Cameroon to finish second in this group–and up until the end of the game I thought they still might make it–but instead they are the first team officially eliminated.  It’s a shame.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Slovakia 0 – 0 Paraguay
• Italy 3 – 1 New Zealand
• Brazil 2 -1 Ivory Coast

I’m traveling again tomorrow so I’ll miss out on watching most of these.  The Brazil game is obviously the big one, but if Slovakia wants any chance of getting out of this group they need to win this game.

A couple final thoughts.  First, this tournament has been very unkind to European (especially West European) and African teams, but very good for South American and Asian teams.  For all that I mouthed the words about Europe tending to be overrated, I still fell into that trap.  My solace is that pretty much everyone else did, too.

Second, the World Cup so far has not reflected well on the English Premier League.  Quick, name three EPL stars who have had good tournament.  Drogba was anonymous, all the English players have been useless, Torres didn’t look fit, Fabregas didn’t play, Ballack is out and so is Essien and Mikel, Anelka was rubbish and then got sent home for cussing out the coach, the French contingent from Arsenal has been useless, Evra has been poor.  Deco was atrocious.

Tevez has been good but not great.  Same with Mascherano.  Bendtner has been alright, I guess?  Vidic has been alright, except for his insane handball yesterday.  Who else?

In addition, two players who were awesome (Robinho and Elano) supposedly couldn’t hack it in England.

It’s only a few games, of course, but is there some possibility that the style of the EPL or the length of the season, or something else is cutting down all these guys?

It was a day of terrible injustices, one committed against Germany by their referee, another committed against the US by their referee, and a final one committed by the English national team against their fans.  It’s a real shame because if not for these mistakes this could have had an argument for being the best day of games so far in the tournament.

Germany 0 – 1 Serbia

I don’t have a lot to add to what Jan says about this match.  I was actually very impressed by Germany.  Despite going down to 10 men, they bossed the game, drew a penalty (that they might have scored had Podolski not taken it), and were constantly threatening a very good Serbia team.  And while they didn’t manage to fight back for a draw, they kept their goal difference strong, which may end up being crucial.

We’ll have to see what happens tomorrow, but this is shaping up to be a very interesting group.  If Ghana can’t win, then Germany will simply be playing them for a spot.  Even if Ghana wins, Germany could still pass them by beating them on the final day.  And if Serbia were to also win, they could still pass Ghana, too.  My ideal world would be for Australia to win tomorrow, giving us a group with four teams on 3 points.  That would be awesome to watch.

I picked Serbia to win this group, and it’s still a small possibility.  But realistically, even with this victory they’re still in somewhat rough shape to qualify, needing a win against Australia, and potentially having even that be insufficient.

Slovenia 2 – 2 USA

Where to start?  The US were pretty terrible in the first half, very exposed defensively, and unable to get a good rhythm in the midfield.  In spite of that, they put together a few very good attacking chances and might well have scored if not for some fine defensive work from Slovenia.  The other major problem was Findley who looked completely out of his depth, unwilling to take a shot when he had a great chance, and incapable of using his pace to much effect.

The first Slovenia goal was a nice strike, but was made possible by a defense that made no apparent effort to close him down, and wasn’t helped by Tim Howard remaining rooted to the spot watching it sail into the net.  The second goal was, again, just rotten defending–a textbook example of how not to defend against a counter or how to run an offside trap.

All of this changed in the second half.  The back line was much more solid, bringing in Edu really helped to solidify the problems in front of the defenders.  The link-up play was also better as Bradley and Donovan in particular held things together.

The US really needed a big lift after the terrible first half and Donovan provided it for the first goal.  In a similar situation to Findley’s terrible effort from the first half, he chose to simply go for goal and smashed it in.  The keeper seemed almost scared of it and probably should have done better.  But it was still a great piece of work from Donovan.  No he’s not a world class player, but he is really, really good.

The second goal was just a great team effort.  A nice ball in to Altidore, a beautiful knock-down to Bradley, and a clinical bit of finishing.

The real controversy, of course, came just a few minutes later when Maurice Edu put the ball in the back of the net and put the US in position to get a brilliant win.  But that did not factor in Mr. Koman Coulibaly, the referee. He called the goal off for…I still honestly have no idea what.  It can’t have been offside because Edu was miles onside.  It can’t have been a foul because, if anything, there were two fouls in the box, both being committed by Slovenians.  It was an unbelievable decision and absolute agony.   Particularly with the result that happened later in the day, the US would be in excellent position had they won–leading the group with 2nd and 3rd playing each other.  Advancement would have been virtually certain and winning the group would have been likely.

Instead, we’re in good, but not great, shape: needing a win against Algeria to put us through.  A draw would make advancement possible (in a world where Slovenia wins or has a low-scoring draw with England), but really we just need to win to be sure.

Man of the match was Donovan, who was immense. In a broader sense, I think there’s a good case for this being the most exciting game of the cup so far.  Not the ‘best’ game since there was a lot of poor play here and there.  But the most riveting, the most engaged, the one with the most energy and passion.  And controversy.

Looking forward, Torres was mediocre and Edu really helped to balance the team–I think there’s a good case for bringing him back for the 3rd game.  Findley is out because of yellow cards (which reminds me to point out that Coulibaly was terrible all night, not just with that last decision. Findley was given a yellow for getting hit in the face by the ball and having it bounce down off his shoulder.  Yes, really.  And Slovenia was rewarded for overreacting to niggly fouls all night), but I’m not sure that’s a terrible loss since he’s been very unimpressive all tournament.  A Charlie Davies style player is a perfect fit for the US system, but Findley simply doesn’t have that kind of class, so he’s not helping much.  I’m curious to see whether Bradley goes with a traditional striker to pair with Altidore (Gomez or Buddle), plays Dempsey with him in a normal 4-4-2, or perhaps has Dempsey play behind in a 4-4-1-1.

EDIT: As usual, Joe Posnanski says what I was thinking far better than I could articulate it myself.  Read his whole post here.  An excerpt:

Only the winning goal was disallowed by Koman Coulibaly. And nobody knew why. Nobody. They showed the replay on television again and again … there was clearly no offside on the play. There was no foul — and if there was any foul it had to be on Slovenia. There was nothing to call. There was nothing but a brilliant goal. But the brilliant goal was disallowed anyway. Donovan would say after the game that the players asked Coulibaly for the simplest thing: Just tell them the call. Just tell they WHY he had disallowed the goal. Donovan would say that Coulibaly refused.

When you are watching a sport you don’t often watch, things happen that you don’t quite understand. Why didn’t that play count? Oh, the offensive lineman was holding. Why was that basket disallowed? Oh, that guy was standing in the lane for three seconds. Why was that home run taken away? Oh, the umpire said it went foul. This happens in every sport.

But what made Coulibali’s Call-of-Folly so maddening is that even soccer experts could not tell us why it happened. Even an honest bad call — even Jim Joyce’s imperfect game call, for instance — is something digestible. He thought the guy was safe. OK. But this … what did he see? What mistake was made? Can a referee simply disallow a goal for fuzzy reasons only he seems to know?

England 0 – 0 Algeria

The only people who had a worse day than Coulibaly are probably the English team.  They looked atrocious.  I honestly think if they had been given another full 90 minutes they still wouldn’t have scored.  These guys are top-class professionals from the best teams in Europe and seemed to have forgotten the most basic and simple things, like how to control the ball or how to pass it to your teammate.

I don’t have a lot to add to that, actually.  I was watching at a bar so didn’t really get a chance to make tactical notations to myself, though it seemed like Gerrard had no clue where he was playing, and it seemed like Rooney played terribly, grew frustrated with it, and kept tracking further and further back–a vicious cycle that made him then even less dangerous.

Also, WTF is Capello’s fascination with Wright-Phillips?  You’ve got Joe Cole on your squad.  He’s actually good at football. Give him a chance to demonstrate it.

My prediction of England in the semifinals is looking pretty terrible right now.  The only thing I’ll say in their defense is that Slovenia looked equally terrible against Algeria, which makes me wonder if there’s something about their style of play that produces this sort of result?  The team that played the US today looked MILES better than the one that got a lucky win against Algeria a few days prior.  So maybe England can recover and give Slovenia the spanking they deserve.  And if so, the only thing that will matter is that they advanced–not how they did it.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Netherlands 3 – 0 Japan
• Ghana 2 – 2 Australia
• Cameroon 1 – 1 Denmark

No good justification for any of these picks.  I think Japan’s Cinderalla clock is going to strike midnight and the Dutch are going to put on their scoring boots.  I think Ghana is going to go all out for a win and let in some poor goals. And I think the final game will be a rough and tumble, high energy, poor quality draw.

So I missed the entirety of the Argentina game (a shame because it featured the most goals so far and, once again, some apparently exquisite play from Messi) and a big chunk of the second game because I was flying cross country on a red-eye.  So the comments today will focus less on the games and more on the status of the groups.

Argentina 4 – 1 South Korea

Messi is living up to the hype.  Sure he hasn’t scored a goal yet, but he was crucial to several today and the other highlights show him doing everything he was doing for Barca.  My prediction that Argentina would be better without Veron seems to have been borne out though.

Greece 2 – 1 Nigeria

Poor Nigeria.  They were apparently cruising and then went a man down thanks to a stupid, stupid move.  My thoughts on that: it’s infuriating the ‘simulation’ employed by the Greece player.  He was barely touched but went down like he had been kicked in the penis.  Kaita is an idiot for lashing out, an deserved to be sent off, probably, but in a just world Katsouranis would get a three match ban too.

Even with 10 men, Nigeria still looked pretty dangerous and had a couple good chances.  And the winning goal they let in was a bit of a fluke.  Poor Vincent Enyeama once again turned in a world class goalkeeping performance, but made a big mistake.  Unlike the previous keeper errors he didn’t simply let the ball in the net, but he did push it weakly back out in front of the goal where the Greeks put it in the net.  It wasn’t a mistake of the same degree, but he really needed to do better.  Even if the swerving or confusion let him get beat, he needs to position himself to push it out away from the goal.

This doesn’t knock Nigeria out entirely.  There’s a good chance that Argentina will beat Greece. Even though they’ve already basically won the group, they could probably play their reserve side and comfortably win.  Assuming Argentina does win, that makes the Nigeria-South Korea game basically a one game playoff.  A win or draw gets South Korea through, while a win for Nigeria puts them through.

I’d give South Korea the best odds of getting through, while Nigeria has a slightly better chance than Greece.

France 0 – 2 Mexico

As someone who picked France to win the group, and who was insistent that their individual talent would overwhelm all the various shenanigans around the team, I am so glad to have been wrong.  They shouldn’t be here anyways, and going out due to total self-implosion is a glorious way for it to all end.  Seriously, France looked terrible.  Mexico, however, displayed a lot of the skill and pace that makes me think they could have a serious run in this tournament.

You’d have to favor Uruguay and Mexico to make it out now.  If they can contrive for a draw, they’re both guaranteed to make it.  Still, France and South Africa aren’t completely out.  If both of the remaining games are blowouts the goal difference might get overwhelmed.  It would actually be just like the French to make it through this way–probably on a late goal from a Henry handball.

I sound more vindictive here than I really feel.  I do actually like a lot of the French players a lot, and do think that it is always nice when the best players make it out of the groups.  But the Irish team is probably my favorite in the world apart from the US and Turkey (the ones I draw culturally from), and Kevin Doyle is my favorite non-US player, so I really am looking for some revenge on their part.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Germany 1 – 1 Serbia
• Slovenia 0 – 0 USA
• England 2 – 1 Algeria

I think Serbia will be far better at smothering that blistering German attack.  I think the similar styles of the US and Slovenia are going to produce a boring affair with only a few weak shots on goal from either side.  And while I’m going to stick with my pre-tournament guess of 2-1 for the last game, based on what I saw the other day I really wouldn’t be surprised if England came out and absolutely obliterated Algeria, releasing some of their pent up rage and producing a 6-0 or something.

The US game is really make or break for us.  A win makes qualification for the second round extremely likely (perhaps allowing us to even lose to Algeria) and gives us a serious shot at winning the group.  A loss puts Slovenia through and means we’ll have to rely on one of Slovenia and Algeria to beat England (unlikely).  A draw leaves things in our own hands.  If that happens and we beat Algeria, the absolute worst case scenario is a draw between England Slovenia putting all three of the teams on 5 points–which would just require us to win by more goals than they get in their draw.  And frankly, the risk of that should be enough to ensure England goes for it and gets the win they need to finish first.

My original thought for the group was that England would get 9 points, the US and Slovenia would draw, and each would beat Algeria.  Since the US got a point against England, they’re in better straits than my initial predictions which really just means they need to hold serve.

(Here’s One for You) Underdog – Bedroom Eyes

Who said this tournament was boring?  Day six was more full of action and excitement than anything yet as the two South American teams put on a real display of class, while the mighty Spain were toppled.

Honduras 0 – 1 Chile

Another perfect prediction for me, though to be honest I thought it was be quite a bit closer.  Chile probably should have won by three or four.  They absolutely battered Honduras–who almost never had the ball in a threatening position.  I don’t even really think that Honduras set out to play all that negatively (at least not compared to some of the other teams so far), but Chile were just that good.  When Honduras could get the ball, they would try to break, but this was rare and usually short-lived.

Alexis Sanchez was ridiculously good for Chile.   He got a bit of hype beforehand, but his stock surely just went up quite a bit.  Honduras simply had no answer to him. Fantastic speed, great vision, tons of skill on the ball.  Very impressive.

I only saw the second  half, but my impression is that it was pretty much the same the whole way through.  The only thing keeping Honduras in the game was some great saves and some mediocre finishing.  Oh, and apparently the ref was terrible (denying a penalty to Chile among other things), though for the portion that I saw he didn’t make any serious mistakes.

For more reading, I’d recommend the great tactical analysis from Zonal Marking.  Helped me see a lot of things I would have otherwise missed.

Chile got a great result, but they’ll actually probably be pretty unhappy with the day overall, given what happened just a short while later…

Spain 0 – 1 Switzerland

Wow.  A great result from Switzerland, and thoroughly deserved, too.  Spain were the better team in most aspects, but they simply couldn’t find a way into dangerous spots in the box and Switzerland, despite having very few offensive moves, had almost as many dangerous chances.  The difference for the game is that they got a bit of luck and managed to bundle one of their opportunities into the net.

Though maybe it’s not fair to ascribe things to luck.  The first touch was actually pretty poor; it bounced off his shin which put it exactly the right distance in front of him.  In addition, on the initial couple showings I thought  that Casillas was just desperately hard done by–he did the right thing in coming out and blocked off the shot; it just took a tricky bounce, got caught up in the tumbling Swiss player and popped back out in a perfect space for a shot.  But on replays it seems like Casillas actually didn’t get any of the ball and a penalty and sending off could have been justified.

In addition, the Swiss also had another great chance toward the end when Derdiyok put on a show of turning defenders this way and that, got himself a bit of space right in front of the goal and then hit it with the ‘wrong’ foot–leaving everyone wrong-footed.  Just a few inches to the left and it would have been 2-0.

Some broader thoughts about this.  To start, I’ll admit to having some mixed feelings.  I really like the Spanish team, I love watching them play, and I’d love to see them do well.  At the same time, you can’t help but root for an underdog and there’s no denying that it’s tremendously exciting to see this group cast into real doubt.  I hope they win their next two and can get late into the tournament.

There was just a little bit of good news on that front, in that I was impressed by how calm Spain remained.  I know some people will call this a problem, and complain that Spain ‘only has one way to play,’ but I think that’s totally wrong.  Bringing on Torres and Navas changed things up and the switch in tactics generated a ton of new possibilities.  But there’s a difference between mixing things up and completely abandoning your approach.  Spain seemed willing, even as the urgency and pressure rose, to stick with the former and not start kicking mindless long balls or taking dumb pot-shots from 35 yards.  In the long term, that’s a good sign.  Against good teams you need to be able to stay calm under pressure and go with what you do best.

I say that Navas was a great addition, and he was because they really needed the width to stretch things out and a lot of their best attacks in the final third of the game came through him.  However, while he was awesome at forcing the defense to re-organize, his crossing was lacking.  Most of them were far too short.  Better crossing from him might have really changed things up.

I know the tendency is going to be to overreact and declare the death of Spain, but let’s all agree to chill out a little bit.  This only the second time Spain has lost in about three years.  We can just wait a couple weeks and we’ll see precisely how they fare.  I’m not willing to let one game change an impression informed by years of watching them dominate.

Final thought: Brazil can’t have been very excited about today’s results.  Assuming they win their group (sure, that’s not certain but presumably they expect to make it happen), the chances of meeting Spain in the second round just went up quite a lot.

South Africa 0 – 3 Uruguay

A serious case of reversion to the mean.  South Africa almost certainly were not as good as they looked against Mexico, and their performance this time around was far closer to what you’d expect from a team of their quality.  Lots of misplaced passes, a lack of tactical awareness (leaving their sole striker stranded for most of the game) and terrible, terrible crossing.  The free kicks and corners regularly sailed well over the danger zone.  And they seemed baffled by what to do about Forlan.

Speaking of which, Forlan’s goal was both beautiful and just a tiny bit lucky.  It took the slightest of hits off the head of a South African defender, which took a bit of the pace off it and gave it a different angle.  It’s hard to say whether it would have found the net without the deflection, but given what we’ve seen of distance strikes so far in the tournament, there’s every chance it would have continued skyward.  The closest defender also ducked out of the way rather than jumping up to try and block it.

Continuing on the subject, I’d just like to point out that Forlan is a great, great player.  He holds the ball well, he makes fantastic runs, he poses endless distractions to the defense, and he is inch-perfect on his through balls.  None of this is news of course. He’s a two time Golden Boot winner in Europe and just recently scored the two winning goals to help Atletico Madrid beat Fulham in the Europa League final.  But it’s worth repeating because his performance today was just about the best we’ve seen so far from anyone in the tournament.

The red card on the keeper was a bit harsh, for two reasons.  One, Suarez really sold it and had been overreacting/diving all game.  There was contact but it was pretty minimal.  Two, the ball was already headed back away from goal at the point where the contact happened so you could argue that it wasn’t really a goal-scoring opportunity.  Still, there was contact and the degree of it doesn’t matter too much if it is a foul.

That’s pretty much it for South Africa’s chances.  It’s a shame, but they haven’t been embarrassed and even if they lose to France, their performance in the opening game was strong.

Predictions for tomorrow:

• Argentina 1 – 0 South Korea
• Greece 0 – 1 Nigeria
• France 3 – 2 Mexico

Argentina catch a lucky break with Veron picking up a leg injury that rules him out of the next game.  This means they’ll be forced to play someone who can run faster than me, and who won’t waste endless opportunities by passing to the opposition or to the 35th row.  My predictions here were all set in stone before the tournament BTW.  Unless something serious happens I’m going to stick with what I guessed a week ago.  Still, I claim close to changing the last one based on the ridiculously low goal-scoring so far.  But whatever, I’m going to stick with it and hope that these two talented teams with defensive frailties liven things up for us.